QUOTE (Jeremy @ Oct 30 2009, 09:34 AM)

In any case, it's an important game in a lot of ways. Like the thread author says, it's huge in terms of confidence and perception. Losing against the Vikings and dropping to [4-3], having beaten no good teams, may make players question how good they can be. Win and they're 5-2, having beaten one of the best teams in the NFC, they can start to think of themselves as an elite team who can beat anyone. Rodgers' status as one of the league's best QBs is solidified.
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From a standings standpoint, it puts us in a tie for 1st if we can take care of TB next week, and we'd have a legit chance to win the division. ... At the very least it makes a wildcard berth much more likely.
Lose and the division is gone. Even with that TB win, we'd trail the Vikings by 2 games, and they'd have the tiebreaker, so it's more like 3 games. Then the wildcard becomes the only option.
jeremy, I agree on all points. It's a very determinitive game in terms of playoffs/standings, and in terms of perception.
Lose again, especially if being as decisively dominated as the last time, and I can't take the team very seriously as a real contender. Perhaps they could still prey on easy schedule and sneak into as a wildcard. But if we get owned by the Vikings again, it will confirm that we don't belong with good teams. The perception, rightly, will be that we aren't one of the five worst teams in the league (and thus have been able to beat Detroit, Rams, Cleveland, and will be able to beat Tampa), but there will be little reason to think we belong in discussion with the good teams. And as you say, obviously a loss also ends any serious consideration of winning the division.
But if we win, especially if we do so in an impressive way, I could come out of the game feeling very differently about our chances. If we win against what appears to be one of the better teams in the conference, why can't we legitimately be one of he good teams in the conference? If we have two losses, we can be in serious consideration for winning the division, and given how easy our schedule is certainly in reasonable consideration to make wildcard if not the division.
We'd also have a chance to change some perceptions about the capability of the team itself. For example, what if the o-line holds up relatively well? Three weeks ago, the perception was that the o-line is hopeless. But what if the o-line was to actually look fairly capable, including both of the young tackles? I don't think that is likely, which is why I don't expect to win in an impressive fashion. But if Lang and Barbre were to look perfectly competent in pass protection, and actually rather good in run blocking, my perception regarding the possibilities of the team as the season unfolds, and also beyond this season, would be meaningfully reconfigured. If they performed in such a way that we felt pretty good about the tackles, than optimism would go up a lot.
Likewise I think perceptions about the defense could be reconfigured substantially by the results Sunday. If the Vikings move the ball as easily as they did last time, the defense will be viewed as limited. We can stop QB-free teams like Detroit/Cleveland, but against a decent team we can't stop both pass and run at the same time. The defense isn't that good, and it can't rush the passer so it will be vulnerable to any good team. (All good teams have good passing attacks.)
But if the defense looks good, think how differently and positively it could be perceived. If they can limit AP again, that would make it weeks straight of effectively containing the running game. The perception that we really do have a strong run-stopping defense could be really solidified with a strong game on Sunday. And if we can get some pass pressure, from both Kampman and Matthews for example, that could establish that we really do have a chance to create problems for good teams that have passing games. Or, if the addition of Bigby did enable Capers to pull out some blitzing, and it worked, it could enliven the perception that Capers and the blitz can work for us. But if again we have no pass pressure, as was true last Vikings game, the perception will be very different.
So I think Sunday's game is very significant. In terms of standings and playoff chances for sure. But also in terms of whether it makes sense to really view this as a serious team with some pretty high possibilities, versus a team that can prey on easy schedule to win some games but isn't really a seriously good team.