QUICK DISCLAIMER: This is mainly for fun. Numbers never tell the whole story, however they can provide interesting insight and perspective at times.

Some stats as of 10/19/09 (keep in mind that San Diego and Denver have yet to play):

10th in the league in points scored with 130 total, or 26 points per game.
7th in the league in points allowed with 93 total, or 18.6 per game.

That gives us a scoring differential of 37 total, or 7.4 per game. On average, we're beating our opponents by over a touchdown.

The Packers are currently 3-2, tied for 10th best in the league. Our record puts us right on the bubble for that second wild card spot.

Our total strength of schedule thus far is .482 - opponents are a combined 14-15. Our losses have come to teams with a combined 10-2 (.833 SOS) and our wins come against teams with a combined 4-13 (.235 SOS).


Now, this is where it gets a bit more complicated and hopefully my calculations and formulas were all correct:

In general, the Packers are scoring an average of 2.62 more points against their opponents than other teams have scored against those same opponents. In contrast, the Packers are allowing 2.04 less points to their opponents than other teams have allowed to those same opponents. Basically, that breaks down to a +4.66 point net for the Packers.

Game by game analysis, by the numbers:

Detroit: The Packers scored almost a whole touchdown less than other teams have been scoring against the Lions. On the flipside, the Lions had been scoring an average of 20.6 points per game, and the Pack shut them out. (Pack v Lions was 26-0, in favor of the Pack -- on the season, the Lions have averaged 20.6-32.4 in favor of the opposition)

St. Louis: This ones a little hit or miss. The Packers surrended almost 10 more points to the Rams than other teams have - however, the Pack also scored almost 10 more points against the Rams than other teams have. (Pack v. Rams was 36-17, in favor of the Pack -- on the season, the Rams have averaged 7.4-26.6, in favor of the opposition)

Minnesota: This one was pretty close to the mean, but the Packers actually came out ahead of most of the Vikings other opponents. The Packers scored 3.4 more points than the Vikings other opponents have, and also surrended 1.8 points less. The gives the Pack a net of +5.2 points over the Vikings other opponents - unfortunately, the Vikings net average win is by 12.2 points, so it wasn't enough to get the win. Regardless, the Packers played the Vikings better than other opponents have, on average. (Pack v. Vikings was 23-30, in favor of the Vikings -- on the season, the Vikings have averaged 31.8-19.6, in favor of the Vikings.

Chicago: It's all good here. The Packers scored 11 more points than the Bears other opponents have, and gave up 1.5 points less to them. (Pack v. Bears was 21-15 in favor of the Pack -- on the season, the Bears have averaged 26-19.5, in favor of the Bears)

Cincinnati: Some good, some bad. The Packers scored 5.2 more points against the Bengals than other teams have, but gave up 13.6 more points than the Bengals other opponents have. That ended up with a net of -8.4 points against the Packers, compared to the Bengals other opponents. Basically, regardless of the Bengals' record right now, this is a game the Packers should have won - they performed well below the mean. (Pack v. Bengals was 24-31, in favor of the Bengals -- on the season, the Bengals have averaged 17.7-18.8, in favor of the opposition)


Long story short:

Detroit: Packers offense performed below the mean (-6.4 points), but the defense well exceeded the mean (+26).

Chicago: Packers offense slightly beat the mean (+1.5), but again, the defense well-exceeded it (+11).

St. Louis: Packers offense beat the mean handily (+9.4), but the defense got hammered (-9.6).

Minnesota: The offense (+3.4) and defense (+1.8) both slightly beat the mean, but it was wasn't enough to get the win.

Cincinnati: The offense beat the mean by a health amount (+5.2), but the defense took its worst beating of the year against the mean (-13.6).

In sum, the offense was "better than average" against Chicago, Minnesota and Cincinnati, far above average against St. Louis, but well below average against Detroit. The defense was well above average against Chicago and Detroit, slightly above against Minnesota, and well below average against St. Louis and Minnesota.

In all, that's essentially 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses for the defense, and 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss for the offense. Interestingly, the offense and defense both put in winning performances against the mean when they played Minnesota, but still came up short.

I was going to start a thread about turnovers, and not to highjack Sinatra's thread, but just to bump it.

The Packers are not turning the ball over. A Grant fumble, a couple A-rod picks, and I think that's about it. It's one of the few bright spots in McCarthy's tenure along with high yardage offensive production and stout quarterback play.

It makes me wonder if Rodger's sacks are justifiable.

But at the same time, if Grant doesn't cough it up vs. Cincy, we might win that one. Arguably, we probably still would have stomped the Kitties even if we tossed a couple INTs.

At the same time, if we turn the ball over @ St. Louis one or two more times, we actually might not win that game. Same goes for the Bears game.

If McCarthy is doing this (turnovers) so damn well, why doesn't if spill over to pre-snap flags and o-line assigments? It makes me wonder how close we actually are from being a great team. But our offensive line is absolutely ruining our chances.

And that's what's so damn frustrating. I don't think we have the pieces necessary to be a great team, but we'd be pretty good if that line got its act together. Problem is, I don't see any way that's going to happen this season.

Our running game was historically bad until Grant took over in our 13-3 season. We were averaging around 40 yards per game up to that point. From that point on we were one of the more dominant running teams in the league per game.

Weird things happen in football. Maybe Lang takes over and locks up the LT spot and the rest of the line finally gels because the left side is shored up. Maybe Cliffy comes back from his injury, shakes off the rust, and that fixes the problem on the left side. Maybe Barbre continues to progress as he seemingly has every week and combines his very good run blocking with solid pass pro the rest of the year.

Who knows. Its early. We could very easily be 4-2 after tomorrow which is pretty good considering we were 6-10 overall last year.