sinatra
Sep 23 2009, 09:17 AM
A topic of conversation the last couple weeks has been whether or not Rodgers is holding on to the ball too long, contributing to the number of sacks. Fanhouse over at AOL did an interesting article today about the average time QB's this year have held the ball before being sacked. Turns out, Rodgers isn't even in the top 10 of longest-holders.
Here's the article:
http://www.packerchatters.com/4ums/index.p...ew_post&f=3Rodgers is no where to be seen, despite the inhuman number of sacks he's taken so far. So then the author listed the top 10 QBs that got rid of the ball the fastest of their sacks - but Rodgers isn't there either. Fortunately, a reader commented on how Rodgers didn't make the list. Well, it's a simple anwer: Rodgers is middle of the road.
On average, Rodgers has held onto the ball for 2.95 seconds before getting sacked. So while he's not getting rid of it as quickly as he could, he's also not exactly among the ballhogs that hold onto it forever. He's firmly in the middle of the pack. Is there improvement he could make? Yeah, sure. But it's not like he's asking an inhuman feat of that offensive line - that line protecting him is just &^%@'ing terrible.
KC Pack Fan
Sep 23 2009, 09:38 AM
I don't think that article tells the true story. If you have a good OL, then you can hold the ball much longer. So I don't know how you do a fair comparison.
I do know this. AR is not going to make it through the season at this rate. He has not thrown any interceptions which tells me he is not making any stupid throws. Although that is a positive it also means he may be holding on to the ball too long and taking the sack rather than risk the interception. Which I would prefer any day.
sinatra
Sep 23 2009, 10:00 AM
I'd simply like to see Rodgers throw the ball away more. He was really great about that last year, especially early on in the season. But I don't think I've seen him throw the ball away a single time this year.
Heatseeker
Sep 23 2009, 10:29 AM
The problem IMO, seems to be not only the tackles, but the interior as well. The pocket is collapsing and because so, he has no room to step into the pocket and make a throw.
Look at how many sacks he's taken where he was in the process of back pedaling because there was literally nowhere to run.
The line at this point has been an utter failure across the board.
Ayt
Sep 23 2009, 10:32 AM
QUOTE (sinatra @ Sep 23 2009, 12:00 PM)

I'd simply like to see Rodgers throw the ball away more. He was really great about that last year, especially early on in the season. But I don't think I've seen him throw the ball away a single time this year.
You want him to throw it away while still in the pocket?
Bruce
Sep 23 2009, 11:24 AM
The stat is meaningless without context.
What is the play call? Is it a west coast quick rythmn offense or a team that throws deep? Teams that run play action often hold on to the ball much longer than a simple drop back.
There are just too many factors that make comparisons apples and oranges to render such a stat meaningful.
Lori Nickels -- not exactly a negative writer -- has an article today affirming what I have been saying, what MM has said and what Aaron himself has said. He is not playing fast enough.
I love his ability to hold on to the ball, but he needs to make quicker reads and decisions and trust what he sees.
That is not some big slam. Every player has things to work on. That is what Aaron needs to work on right now.
Big Dave
Sep 23 2009, 12:13 PM
Ya, good call Bruce.
I think Aaron spent so much time in the offseason working on things he did negatively last year, and spent less time refining the things that got him to be a successful QB in the NFL.
I'm really curious to see the Rodgers' led team that comes out of the tunnel Sunday against the Rams. He's been more vocal than usual this week, and I'm dying to see how the team responds.
lozmel
Sep 23 2009, 03:08 PM
Maybe Rodgers should roll out more to buy time to throw
Heatseeker
Sep 23 2009, 07:29 PM
QUOTE (lozmel @ Sep 23 2009, 06:08 PM)

Maybe Rodgers should roll out more to buy time to throw
I think that's a bit easier said than done. He did that last week and went to the right. A few moments later, he was being buried Joe Montana-getting-crushed-by-Lawerence-Taylor-style and fumbling the ball.
The fact is, both interior and exterior linemen aren't pass blocking very well. I'm not sure what the cause is -- no idea. Might be technique, strength, passion, etc... But as a whole, this line just isn't very good. We need IMO, a couple of upper echelon linemen to be able to compete at this point.
ammek
Sep 24 2009, 12:13 AM
QUOTE (lozmel @ Sep 24 2009, 12:08 AM)

Maybe Rodgers should roll out more to buy time to throw
That's what he did (very effectively) last year. However, it was going to get him slaughtered. During the offseason McCarthy has obviously worked with Rodgers on staying in the pocket more. Give Rodgers some time to get comfortable with it — like many people who attended college, he has to unlearn most of what he was taught there.
JASIII
Sep 24 2009, 05:48 AM
I was surprised MM did not go to the 'moving pocket' type of plays we've seen in the past couple of seasons. It seemed like an effective way to protect the QB.
OH Packer revisited
Sep 24 2009, 05:52 AM
3 of the 5 sacks from Odom were the result of holding the ball too long. Don't really care about statistics in a 2 game season. Its not a big enough sample. One quick blitz left unblocked that takes .5 secs throws it all out of whack. I'm not giving props to the line, just saying a reasonable # of the 10 sacks are on our qb. I don't know if he's looking for the big play or second guessing himself and trying to find someone wide open.
The King
Sep 24 2009, 10:04 AM
QUOTE (OH Packer revisited @ Sep 24 2009, 08:52 AM)

3 of the 5 sacks from Odom were the result of holding the ball too long. Don't really care about statistics in a 2 game season. Its not a big enough sample. One quick blitz left unblocked that takes .5 secs throws it all out of whack. I'm not giving props to the line, just saying a reasonable # of the 10 sacks are on our qb. I don't know if he's looking for the big play or second guessing himself and trying to find someone wide open.
I just don't buy that as fact. I've heard others state it was 1. Most successful QB's have a little bit of time to go through a few reads and make a decision. Most plays need some time to develop unless you are throwing a quick slant. Even a screen takes a few seconds. The line was horrible! No questions about it.
Ayt
Sep 24 2009, 10:18 AM
QUOTE (OH Packer revisited @ Sep 24 2009, 07:52 AM)

3 of the 5 sacks from Odom were the result of holding the ball too long. Don't really care about statistics in a 2 game season. Its not a big enough sample. One quick blitz left unblocked that takes .5 secs throws it all out of whack. I'm not giving props to the line, just saying a reasonable # of the 10 sacks are on our qb. I don't know if he's looking for the big play or second guessing himself and trying to find someone wide open.
He doesn't have anyone to dump it off to because all his dump off options are blocking (poorly).
Skyshadow
Sep 24 2009, 12:12 PM
QUOTE (Ayt @ Sep 24 2009, 11:18 AM)

He doesn't have anyone to dump it off to because all his dump off options are blocking (poorly).
Werd.
Some of the blame goes to Rodgers, but it's more those incompletions that were poorly thrown than anything else.
Myself, I think a lot of people are panicking after week 2 and looking to fix anything they see. Could Rodgers play better? Sure. Is he the source or even a major contributor to the reason we lost in week 2? Nope.
packinatl
Sep 24 2009, 12:32 PM
QUOTE (The King @ Sep 25 2009, 01:04 AM)

I just don't buy that as fact. I've heard others state it was 1. Most successful QB's have a little bit of time to go through a few reads and make a decision. Most plays need some time to develop unless you are throwing a quick slant. Even a screen takes a few seconds. The line was horrible! No questions about it.
One reason may be that Rodgers is confused by some of the coverages thrown at him. He admitted as much in the Bear game. Coordinators now have 16 games of film on him running this offense. Good coordiantors make adjustments and disguise coverages. Now its up to McCarthy to make adjustments also
Ayt
Sep 24 2009, 12:54 PM
I think MM overcompensated after Barbre got destroyed. If the other team is taking away your short routes and daring you to find spots between the underneath guys and the deep guys or past the deep guys, keeping 7 guys in to block and only sending out 3 receivers that are all running medium to long routes isn't going to work all that well for a QB like Rodgers. Despite the fact that he goes deep quite a bit, AR is actually a conservative QB that tends to only attack what he perceives to be very open spots in the D. If they are rushing 4 and dropping everyone back and we only have 3 recievers running routes, the most likely thing to happen is him seemingly holding it too long since the guys aren't as open as he's used to.
We need go back to shotgun sets with only 5-6 blockers. Teams can't take away all the short stuff when you have them that spread out, and AR is smart enough (I think anyway) to be able to read which of the many receivers has a good matchup against the D with his route and get the ball out quickly.
This max protect crap is garbage. We need to do the opposite. Take off the kid gloves with the offense. Spread them out and attack and let our QB use his brain to make the quick decisions that are needed and let our receivers win one on one matchups instead of sending 3 against 7.
Phishtar
Sep 24 2009, 01:11 PM
On some plays Rodgers is hanging on to the ball too long, on some plays the line is getting demolished and on some plays the receivers aren't getting open, forcing Rodgers to hold on to the ball too long, which results in him getting hit and sacked. I would also add to that list a lack of commitment to running the ball, forced in large part by frequently having negative/no-yardage plays (sacks, penalties, dropped passes) on first down.
Regardless of whether they run or pass, they need to be much more efficent on 1st down.
I'm not sure any one thing is the culprit and I agree with Bruce that there are too many variables to point at one thing. I also think it's way too early at 1-1 to start hitting any panic buttons.
Now ... if the Rams sack Rodgers 6 times ...
Packer Backer NY
Sep 24 2009, 01:22 PM
QUOTE (Phishtar @ Sep 24 2009, 05:11 PM)

Now ... if the Rams sack Rodgers 6 times ...
Then we are screwed!
Actually, I did some scouting on what the Rams fans are saying and they think the game is winnable, but that their pass rush is weak and they want the running game to control the clock. Jackson, all day long..........
Vots
Sep 24 2009, 01:24 PM
Rodgers holding on the ball to long?
A QB should have almost 4 seconds to let his play develop. At 1 second he's dropping back and the receivers are beginning their routes. 2-3 seconds the QB is at the end of his drop and progressing through his receivers. At the 4th second he's releasing the ball.
So far this year upon my analysis:
CHI:
Jason Spitz: Pressure (*sack), allowed the safety during the CHI game (failed to block his guy, which made Grant pick him up, which meant the blitzer Grant should’ve had if he didn’t have to block Spitz’s guy, comes in free, I blame this play on Spitz).
Allen Barbe: Many sacks and many pressures
Daryn Colledge: Pressures
Chad Clifton: Allowed a sack
Josh Sitton: Missed the blitzer allowing pressure
Ryan Grant: Didn't get a block on an easy play
CIN:
Allen Barbre: 3 seconds and his guy gets a pressure, 2 seconds and his guy pressures, 2 seconds and his guy pressures, there were 2 plays where he let his guy go buy UNTOUCHED
Colledge: Allowed sack and pressures
Chad Clifton: 2 seconds and his guys are pressuring Rodgers
Scott Wells: Almost allowed his guy to sack Rodgers after only 3 seconds on that big pass to Driver at the end of the game
Go back and watch the film at your own pace, Rodgers isn't holding onto the ball anymore then the top-tier QB's are. When he ends up holding on to the ball for 5 or 6 seconds, it's because he just finished dodging defenders in the backfield and he's rolling out.
A QB shouldn't be trying to get the ball out in 2 seconds. Plays need to develop. 2.95 seconds actually is a troubling stat for the OL. Rodgers should have 3.95 seconds.
Packer Backer NY
Sep 24 2009, 01:34 PM
QUOTE (Vots @ Sep 24 2009, 05:24 PM)

A QB shouldn't be trying to get the ball out in 2 seconds. Plays need to develop. 2.95 seconds actually is a troubling stat for the OL. Rodgers should have 3.95 seconds.
Agree. Rodgers is not the problem. Give him a good line and he is a Pro Bowl QB. Otherwise, he is just another QB running for his life and fighting dings and injuries all year.
The guy needs time to throw.
Of course, a running game would help!
Skyshadow
Sep 24 2009, 01:53 PM
QUOTE (Vots @ Sep 24 2009, 02:24 PM)

Rodgers holding on the ball to long?
A QB should have almost 4 seconds to let his play develop. At 1 second he's dropping back and the receivers are beginning their routes. 2-3 seconds the QB is at the end of his drop and progressing through his receivers. At the 4th second he's releasing the ball.
So far this year upon my analysis:
CHI:
Jason Spitz: Pressure (*sack), allowed the safety during the CHI game (failed to block his guy, which made Grant pick him up, which meant the blitzer Grant should’ve had if he didn’t have to block Spitz’s guy, comes in free, I blame this play on Spitz).
Allen Barbe: Many sacks and many pressures
Daryn Colledge: Pressures
Chad Clifton: Allowed a sack
Josh Sitton: Missed the blitzer allowing pressure
Ryan Grant: Didn't get a block on an easy play
CIN:
Allen Barbre: 3 seconds and his guy gets a pressure, 2 seconds and his guy pressures, 2 seconds and his guy pressures, there were 2 plays where he let his guy go buy UNTOUCHED
Colledge: Allowed sack and pressures
Chad Clifton: 2 seconds and his guys are pressuring Rodgers
Scott Wells: Almost allowed his guy to sack Rodgers after only 3 seconds on that big pass to Driver at the end of the game
Go back and watch the film at your own pace, Rodgers isn't holding onto the ball anymore then the top-tier QB's are. When he ends up holding on to the ball for 5 or 6 seconds, it's because he just finished dodging defenders in the backfield and he's rolling out.
A QB shouldn't be trying to get the ball out in 2 seconds. Plays need to develop. 2.95 seconds actually is a troubling stat for the OL. Rodgers should have 3.95 seconds.
Well done.
Bud
Sep 24 2009, 03:01 PM
QUOTE (Vots @ Sep 24 2009, 05:24 PM)

Rodgers holding on the ball to long?
A QB should have almost 4 seconds to let his play develop. At 1 second he's dropping back and the receivers are beginning their routes. 2-3 seconds the QB is at the end of his drop and progressing through his receivers. At the 4th second he's releasing the ball.
A QB shouldn't be trying to get the ball out in 2 seconds. Plays need to develop. 2.95 seconds actually is a troubling stat for the OL. Rodgers should have 3.95 seconds.
Vots, excellent analysis but I'm not sure a QB needs 4 seconds to let the play develop. Sure they would love that amount of time but how intricate and how far down the field are these plays developing? That's a lot of time in the pro game.I'm thinking it needs to be out of hand by 3.5 to 4 seconds. Heck, a lot of NFL teams employ a buzzer in camp to teach the Qb's to get the ball out by 3 seconds.
I'll defer to those who've played or coached the Pro game but I think we underestimate the speed of the game. These guys run 40's in 4.5 seconds. The quick timing routes should not take that long to develop.
I do not think that AR is holding on to long and he seems to be about average and I agree that the line needs to stiffen for that extra half to a second. Once that happens, coupled with outlet valves, AR may not be on his back that often. On a side note, I can remember long ago how they talked about LT getting to the QB's drop point in 2 to 2.5 seconds! That is phenominally fast.
LMG
Sep 24 2009, 04:12 PM
QUOTE (Packer Backer NY @ Sep 24 2009, 02:34 PM)

Agree. Rodgers is not the problem. Give him a good line and he is a Pro Bowl QB. Otherwise, he is just another QB running for his life and fighting dings and injuries all year.
The guy needs time to throw.
Of course, a running game would help!
The WR's need to catch the ball...to many drops!!
Vinnie
Sep 24 2009, 04:25 PM
While everyone can improve in some facet, Rodgers is the least of the problems to worry about.
diesel
Sep 24 2009, 05:02 PM
QUOTE (LMG @ Sep 24 2009, 07:12 PM)

The WR's need to catch the ball...to many drops!!
I agree. And there were early drops last week . Two in the first series, if I recall. I expect we'll see a much cleaner game in that aspect, as well as the penalties.
Packer Backer NY
Sep 24 2009, 07:02 PM
QUOTE (LMG @ Sep 24 2009, 08:12 PM)

The WR's need to catch the ball...to many drops!!
That is very true!
Bruce
Sep 24 2009, 08:33 PM
How is this even debatable???
Aaron Rodgers has manned up and said he needs to play faster and that he has contributed to the problem.
Mike McCarthy has said the same.
Aaron Rodgers is only a second year starter who has less than 20 starts under his belt. While a very solid young QB (and yes currently the Packers franchise QB) he has plenty of upside and room for improvement.
I just cannot understand why fans think he is beyond reproach.
MM is right in his accountablity speech - it should exclude no one.
Hell, Charles Woodson looks at the film and seems plenty of room for improvement - when your team loses no player (especially a team leader) should fail to look at the areas that they could improve in.
OH Packer revisited
Sep 25 2009, 05:41 AM
In all my years of playing OLine I was told 3 seconds. 3 seconds is the minimum. If you can get 4 your qb should be picking apart the other team. When I say 3 of Odom's 5 were on Rodgers I'm saying that Rodgers either had the time or he saw the pressure and had the opportunity to get rid of the ball. If you're outside the tackle and you see a DE coming for you, you either need to make your throw or get rid of it. Rodgers tried to create. I don't blame him or hold it against him. We needed some plays.
Heatseeker
Sep 25 2009, 06:06 AM
Not to toot my own horn here, but in my, "Bold Predictions" thread a couple months ago, I said that statistically, Aaron Rodgers would be worse this season -- but would be a better overall Quarterback.
I think we're seeing just that happen.
He's going to struggle this year with coverages, with little time to throw and with a gameplan as creative as a stick figure drawing. In the end though, I think he'll be a better QB because of it. I think he's still got some growing pains to go through.
pilprin
Sep 25 2009, 06:26 AM
HS - I agree that you are right on. AR needs to make his reads faster and take the check downs. He seems to have gotten into a deep ball funk. If we can't run it, we need to go San Fran on them and dink and dunk. Unfortunately Grant doesn't seem to be a great reciever.
ammek
Oct 23 2009, 11:31 AM
Thought I'd add this interesting little stat.
Of the 25 sacks Rodgers has taken:
12 have come on first down. Eleven on 1st-and-10, one on 1st-and-goal from the 3.
7 have come on second down. Two of these were on 2nd-and-longer-than-10, one following a penalty and the other a negative run. Two were on 2nd-and-shorter-than-6.
Only 6 have come on third down.
This is a very, very unusual imbalance. Sacks tend to happen on third down or second-and-long, for obvious reasons.
Conclusion? Rodgers is holding the ball too long when he thinks he has a chance to. By contrast, he is doing a good job at getting the ball away when he knows the rush is coming. He now has to realize that this line won't give him the kind of time he wants on first down.
We'll see what happens this week. Some rushing on first down would be a start.
packinatl
Oct 23 2009, 11:49 AM
QUOTE (ammek @ Oct 24 2009, 02:31 AM)

Thought I'd add this interesting little stat.
Of the 25 sacks Rodgers has taken:
12 have come on first down. Eleven on 1st-and-10, one on 1st-and-goal from the 3.
7 have come on second down. Two of these were on 2nd-and-longer-than-10, one following a penalty and the other a negative run. Two were on 2nd-and-shorter-than-6.
Only 6 have come on third down.
This is a very, very unusual imbalance. Sacks tend to happen on third down or second-and-long, for obvious reasons.
Conclusion? Rodgers is holding the ball too long when he thinks he has a chance to. By contrast, he is doing a good job at getting the ball away when he knows the rush is coming. He now has to realize that this line won't give him the kind of time he wants on first down.
We'll see what happens this week. Some rushing on first down would be a start.
Hard to run the ball on 1st down when you dont have a consistent running game. I would like to see a more traditional WCO where as some posters have mentioned more check downs, 3 step drops and short routes
rpiotr01
Oct 23 2009, 11:56 AM
QUOTE (packinatl @ Oct 23 2009, 03:49 PM)

Hard to run the ball on 1st down when you dont have a consistent running game. I would like to see a more traditional WCO where as some posters have mentioned more check downs, 3 step drops and short routes
I've watched all the games this year, and IMO there is no one to blame for the lack of this type of attack but Rodgers. The routes are there, McCarthy is calling the same type of game he did in 2007. At the end of the day the QB needs to buy into it and he hasn't. IMO there's a difference between what McCarthy wants and what Rodgers wants - AR wants to go down the field and to the sidelines. He doesn't like throwing the skinny post and seems loathe to take a chance over the middle of the field. If you're going to put the ball in the QBs hands 35-40 times per game then he NEEDS to buy into the chess match and IMO there's still an issue there.
The Viking game still kills me. We had them there for the taking all game long.
PackerJB
Oct 23 2009, 12:04 PM
QUOTE (lozmel @ Sep 24 2009, 05:08 AM)

Maybe Rodgers should roll out more to buy time to throw
So he'll be killed while on the run. Great idea
Jeremy
Oct 23 2009, 12:55 PM
It would be great if Rodgers had the luxury of holding onto the ball "too long" once in a while. You look at guys like Brady and Roethlisberger and there are times they're able to hold the ball seemingly forever. Not every play, but very often.
Contrast that with Rodgers, who either A. Doesn't get enough time to find a receiver, or B. has as much time as a QB can reasonable expect. This offensive line never gives him those plays were he can take his sweet time and take a look at at all the different options, unless he rolls out and the defense is fooled by it. I just really wish we had the kind of line that could give him a little extra once in a while where he can sit in that pocket and make a few reads.
ammek
Oct 23 2009, 02:17 PM
QUOTE (packinatl @ Oct 23 2009, 08:49 PM)

Hard to run the ball on 1st down when you dont have a consistent running game.
Hard to have a consistent running game when you don't run the ball on first down.
Skyshadow
Oct 23 2009, 10:32 PM
QUOTE (Jeremy @ Oct 23 2009, 01:55 PM)

It would be great if Rodgers had the luxury of holding onto the ball "too long" once in a while. You look at guys like Brady and Roethlisberger and there are times they're able to hold the ball seemingly forever. Not every play, but very often.
Contrast that with Rodgers, who either A. Doesn't get enough time to find a receiver, or B. has as much time as a QB can reasonable expect. This offensive line never gives him those plays were he can take his sweet time and take a look at at all the different options, unless he rolls out and the defense is fooled by it. I just really wish we had the kind of line that could give him a little extra once in a while where he can sit in that pocket and make a few reads.
I think you're right here -- Rodgers only seems like he's holding the ball too long because we're getting used to seeing him hit within a few seconds of the snap.
I watch other games where the QB has enough time to even just check down, I find myself thinking "Wow, look at all that time he has! ZOMG throw the ball! You're gonna get... Wait, nobody near him yet..."
mikebpackfan
Oct 24 2009, 07:28 AM
QUOTE (Skyshadow @ Oct 24 2009, 01:32 AM)

I think you're right here -- Rodgers only seems like he's holding the ball too long because we're getting used to seeing him hit within a few seconds of the snap.
I watch other games where the QB has enough time to even just check down, I find myself thinking "Wow, look at all that time he has! ZOMG throw the ball! You're gonna get... Wait, nobody near him yet..."
Another thing I've noticed, is not only does Rodgers not have any time, he also has no escape routes. Normally, if you feel pressure from one side you can roll to the other or step up away from it, but on a lot of the sacks he seems completely trapped--rat in a cage, if you will.
chunkymonkey
Oct 24 2009, 11:54 AM
QUOTE (mikebpackfan @ Oct 24 2009, 10:28 AM)

Another thing I've noticed, is not only does Rodgers not have any time, he also has no escape routes. Normally, if you feel pressure from one side you can roll to the other or step up away from it, but on a lot of the sacks he seems completely trapped--rat in a cage, if you will.
That has been key- last year he could role out away from someone like Allen, but this year both edges collapse and he has no where to go.
Rodgers does have a problem with denial though. With this line, he has to dump the ball out quickly. It would be nice if he had more time, but so far he hasn't gotten it from them. Continuing to act like it is going to occur will just lead to more sacks.
Pugger
Oct 25 2009, 06:51 AM
QUOTE (ammek @ Oct 23 2009, 06:17 PM)

Hard to have a consistent running game when you don't run the ball on first down.
And it is no secret to your opponent when you go into the shotgun or an empty backfield to often either! If you leave a RB back there the D has to respect the chance you're gonna run. If you don't then they can pin their ears back and bring the kitchen sink. Because our tackles are struggling there is no place for Rodgers to run to either.
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