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NeuBrew
Let me preface this by saying that I really like both players quite a bit. I've been a big fan of both since college. Taking a look at the current stats for each player, I think it's clear we have two game breaking type of special teamers. Blackmon has proven to be an elite punt returner, having already returns three for touchdowns in his young career. Jordy has only returned a couple of punts, so there's not much to judge him on.

However, Jordy does have a number of kickoff returns under his belt and he's proven to be very effective. Kickoffs returned for touchdowns are extremely rare, so an impact return can be categorized as anything over 40 yards. Jordy has only returned 15 kicks and has already returned 3 beyond 40 yards. Will Blackmon has only done so once in 56 kick returns. So, the rate of 40+ yard returns for Blackmon is 1.8% and Nelson is 20%. This is a small statistical example, but it is significant.

Will Blackmon
56 Kick Returns, 20.7 average, 1 40+ yard (1.8% chance of 40+)
44 Punt Returns, 11.5 average, 3 TDs

Jordy Nelson
2 Punt Returns, 7.0 average
15 Kick Returns, 22.1 average, 3 40+ yards (20% chance of 40+)


As it stands right now, I would start Blackmon on punts and Nelson on kick returns. It could be a devastating combo for the rest of the season.
JASIII
I feel a little dumb asking this, but I just haven't noticed..are the Packers putting 2 guys back on KO returns this season?
Jeremy
Yeah, Jordy on kick returns, Blackmon on punts appears to be the way to go. I'm not sure I would call Jordy a "gamebreaker" on kick returns, but he appears to be at least servicable, maybe even above average.
Bruce
QUOTE (NeuBrew @ Sep 18 2009, 02:12 PM) *
Let me preface this by saying that I really like both players quite a bit. I've been a big fan of both since college. Taking a look at the current stats for each player, I think it's clear we have two game breaking type of special teamers. Blackmon has proven to be an elite punt returner, having already returns three for touchdowns in his young career. Jordy has only returned a couple of punts, so there's not much to judge him on.

However, Jordy does have a number of kickoff returns under his belt and he's proven to be very effective. Kickoffs returned for touchdowns are extremely rare, so an impact return can be categorized as anything over 40 yards. Jordy has only returned 15 kicks and has already returned 3 beyond 40 yards. Will Blackmon has only done so once in 56 kick returns. So, the rate of 40+ yard returns for Blackmon is 1.8% and Nelson is 20%. This is a small statistical example, but it is significant.

Will Blackmon
56 Kick Returns, 20.7 average, 1 40+ yard (1.8% chance of 40+)
44 Punt Returns, 11.5 average, 3 TDs

Jordy Nelson
2 Punt Returns, 7.0 average
15 Kick Returns, 22.1 average, 3 40+ yards (20% chance of 40+)


As it stands right now, I would start Blackmon on punts and Nelson on kick returns. It could be a devastating combo for the rest of the season.


That is exactly how I see it (even without the supporting stats.

Blackmon is a far better punt returner than kick returner and I would not put his health at risk -- he has not exactly proven to be Mr Durability -- by putting him at kick returner when Jordy is at least as good (better IMO).
strat1080
QUOTE (Bruce @ Sep 18 2009, 02:36 PM) *
That is exactly how I see it (even without the supporting stats.

Blackmon is a far better punt returner than kick returner and I would not put his health at risk -- he has not exactly proven to be Mr Durability -- by putting him at kick returner when Jordy is at least as good (better IMO).


I totally agree. Blackmon is a reliable and electric punt returner but he just doesn't get it done on kickoffs. In limited opportunities, Nelson equalled Blackmon's long kickoff return last year and also busted off a 40+ yard kickoff in the first game. I think Nelson has more top end speed on kickoffs than Blackmon does. Blackmon is one of those guys that is quick and elusive but not fast. Nelson is the kind of guy that can pull away from defenders. You need that on kickoffs. I do think they need to work somebody else in there on kickoffs. I personally believe Tramon Williams is our best kickoff returner. Nelson might be as good if given more opportunities.
eire5199
I'm on board with you guys...Blackmon for punts and Jordy for kickoffs.

There's no doubt about it...there's quite a difference between punt returns and kickoff returns. Blackmon has a great knack for punt returns, and seems to have the short-area quickness to make that first guy miss and make something happen.

I actually think he has a knack for kickoffs too, but so does Jordy. I'm with Bruce on this one...Blackmon has been injury prone enough to make me think that I'd rather see Jordy handle the kickoffs. He's a try-hard guy and will get what's there, if not a little more. I thought he was pretty darn solid last Sunday.
NeuBrew
QUOTE (Jeremy @ Sep 18 2009, 08:44 PM) *
Yeah, Jordy on kick returns, Blackmon on punts appears to be the way to go. I'm not sure I would call Jordy a "gamebreaker" on kick returns, but he appears to be at least servicable, maybe even above average.


Well, my definition of a gamebreaking play is a 40+ yard kickoff return. Jordy already has three, so I am optimistic.
Ellis269
Jordy on kickoffs and Blackmon on punts sounds about right. I'll second the opinion that Tramon Williams is a great returner, but I don't know if the team wants to risk putting him out there because it's pretty clear at this point that he's going to be one of the guys to start at CB in the future. To be perfectly honest, I'd love to see what Jackson or Swain could do on kickoffs with Jordy. It would be nice to develop a guy like Josh Cribbs who does both exceptionally well and know that you've got a gamebreaker back there no matter what, and I just don't see that guy as already being on the roster.
Nimrod
I am happy that Woodson is not back there and I second the notion that williams should not be either.Let Nelso,Blackmon , Swain ,Wynn etc do the return work.
Ayt
I like Nelson on kickoffs. Often a bigger guy that still has a little wiggle and good top end speed is the best option on kicks. He can break arm tackles and we've seen he has another gear he can kick into if given a seam.
NeuBrew
Again, another game where Blackmon does nothing on kickoffs. He's just not good at it. Can the coaching staff adjust though?
R man
Jordy looked good last week....
VoiceofReason
Blackmon had no room to run. Lt week, Jordy had a seem to run a couple times. That simple. Blackmon can take it tothe house, Jordy can't. I would stick with Blackmon.
NeuBrew
I would like to bump this thread based on the Vikings game so far.
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