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PackerChatters > PackerChatters > Green Bay Packers News Talk > Mark Murphy, Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy, and Aaron Rodgers
grabthar
The word "Bust" has been bandied about here quite a bit in regards to Thompson's top picks in the draft. Harrell, Lee, Brohm, and to some extent Jackson, Rouse, and Hawk (for not being an impact player).

I'm was wondering how Thompson would stack up against Wolf for the first 3 rounds so I went back and looked at the players Wolf had drafted in his first 3 rounds. There were a lot of names in the list that I conveniently forgot that Wolf drafted. It looks like even a great GM like Wolf has his share of misses at the beginning of the draft. Every year from 1992 to 2000 Wolf took a player in the top 3 rounds who was either a bust or just an average player.

Year Player Round
1992 Buckley 1
1992 Mark D'Onofrio 2

1993 George Teague 1

1994 LeShon Johnson 3

1995 Darius Holland 3

1996 John Michels 1
1996 Derrick Mayes 2

1997 Brett Conway 3

1998 Jonathan Brown 3

1999 Antuan Edwards 1
1999 Fred Vinson 2

2000 Steve Warren 3

If you count the 2001 draft where Wolf and Sherman worked together on it, it looks even worse:

2001 Jamal Reynolds 1
2001 Robert Ferguson 2
2001 Bhawoh Jue 3
2001 Torrance Marshall 3

For every Harrell there is a Mark D'Onofrio - someone injured who just can't get better. For each AJ Hawk, there is a Buckley - an average player taken way too high. Brian Brohm - Fred Vinson, Brandon Jackson - LeShon Johnson, Pat Lee - George Teague, etc. Wolf even took a bust of a kicker in the 3rd round, imagine if Thompson would do that. 3 3rd round D-linemen (Holland, Brown and Warren) who didn't amount to much at all and a bust of a LT with Jon Michels.


Sometimes people need to sit back and realize that the GMs that we have (Wolf, Sherman, and Thompson) are doing the best they can based off of the information they receive and the projections that they have for players. Sometimes they work out, other times they don't.




chewdog
I've always thought that people overreact to a draft pick not panning out. Even in the first round, a significant portion of players don't work out in the end. And as you go into the 2nd and 3rd round, the number of busts increase even more until you get into the late rounds where the busts far outnumber the guys who work out, and even the ones that work out, most are backups. Thats simply the nature of the NFL draft. Sometimes you take chances and sometimes you take the safe pick. Even then, the safe pick could end up being a bust.

I'd take George Teague and Antuan Edwards off the list. Both have contributed to the success of the packers in their day. Though the same could be said for Hawk and Jackson.
JASIII
QUOTE (chewdog @ Sep 8 2009, 03:54 PM) *
I'd take George Teague and Antuan Edwards off the list. Both have contributed to the success of the packers in their day. Though the same could be said for Hawk and Jackson.

Teague did very little here, but was a solid player in Dallas later. I don't recall much of anything that Edwards did, he was injured a lot of the time and he was not a starter. They tried him at safety before giving up on him.
Heatseeker
I think people's perception is swayed a bit by the fact that Wolf also drafted, and brought in (via free agency) two first-round Hall of Fame players, along with a few other big time players that resonate with Packer fans.

Not saying it's right or wrong, but I think it's a legit reason.

That and looking back on Wolf's career is FAR easier than judging Thompson's relative short one (with the Pack) right now. It's a tough comparison. Mainly because the only real player that Thompson has brought in that has had real, long-term, superstar-type success is Charles Woodson. Rodgers and Jennings I'll assume will get there, but the jury is still out.

Wolf meanwhile, we can look back and remark on what a genius he was for grabbing Brent, but had I been older at the time of it, something tells me I would have wondered what the hell Wolf was doing. Personally, I'm hoping a few other, "what the hell" moments with Thompson, like Greg Jennings for example, end up the same way.
strat1080
I also think the condemnation by some fans of Justin Harrell is over the top. The guy got hurt lifting weights under the supervision of the Packers training staff. He had surgery to repair the damage and had bone spurs left from the surgery. He didn't get hurt because he was overweight like some people like to say. The guy simply got hurt doing what he was supposed to be doing. I can see some people bashing Thompson for drafting a guy with a questionable injury history in the 1st round but the disgust some people have for Harrell as a person to me is over the top. Deep down the guy is a good kid who was blessed with bad health and has had a bad run of luck. That's it. I've gotten injured participating in the sport that I love. Am I bad person because of it. Injuries happen. Some people are more prone to them than others.
Skyshadow
In my opinion, you can have as many busts as you want. Fielding a good team and winning games is all that counts.
Big Dave
QUOTE (Skyshadow @ Sep 9 2009, 05:38 AM) *
In my opinion, you can have as many busts as you want. Fielding a good team and winning games is all that counts.

Yeah, pretty much.

I mean, I think Thompson gets criticized a whole hell of a lot more mainly because this is how he builds our franchise. If he was active in FA bringing in premiere talent, but swung and missed in a couple drafts, we wouldn't put so much emphasis on these player 'busts'. But, this is M.O., and 'bust' picks like Harrell, Brohm, Lee, etc. get exaggerated more. But let's be real here, I'd be willing to wager Thompson has hit on a more picks than he has lost in his drafts. I get more and more excited about the 2007 draft everyday...anyways, all GM's have busts, but it's how you overcome them building a team.
sinatra
I think people are unrealistic about draft picks. They act as if half of them need to be Pro Bowlers or else the draft was a failure. That's crazy.

Look at the 2005 NFL Draft. In the entire first three rounds (that's 100 players total), there are only 13 Pro Bowlers to date. Oh, and incidentally, 1 of those 13 is a Packer - Nick Collins. And if you want to get speculative, it's a pretty sure bet that number will jump to at least 14 this year (Aaron Rodgers). Assuming a few other guys make it too, you're looking at 18 Pro Bowlers out of the first 100 players drafted in the 2005 NFL Draft. And 2 of those 18 will be Packers.

That's a pretty damn good success rate if you ask me. Even removing my speculation from the picture, only 40% of teams managed to nab a Pro Bowler in the first three rounds of the 2005 NFL Draft, despite some of them picking 3 times or more - and TT was one of them. The guy that's constantly decried as a bust drafted in the first three rounds.

It's just old and tired. Every GM has busts. Every GM passes on eventual superstars. Every GM misses more than he hits. If you're managing one Pro Bowler a year, you're doing a pretty damn fine job of GM'ing. And from what we can tell, it looks like TT may be on pace to do that:

'05 Collins already and Rodgers on the horizon
'06 Jennings down the road (a shame that he hasn't been already)
'07 No clear candidates yet but lots of potential [Crosby, Bishop, Wynn, etc.]
'08 Finley and lots of other potential

Based on my very early and speculative projections, I wouldn't be surprised if we send upwards of 4 guys this year (Rodgers, Jenning, Grant, Finley, Woodson, Collins, Harris, possibly one of our LB's, etc. are all viable candidates - and yes, I realize TT didn't draft Woodson, Grant, Harris, etc.).

TT certainly has his weaknesses, but drafting isn't one of them.
JimATX
"Fart in the wind."
eire5199
I was thinking of doing a thread in this vein, so I'll throw in what I was thinking here.

When I look at Ted's drafts, I like to break it down a little bit into three categories. High round picks (Rounds 1-2), middle round picks (3-5), and low round picks (6-7). Just for the heck of it, let's take a look at it from that viewpoint:

Rounds 1-2: Aaron Rodgers, Nick Collins, Terrence Murphy, A.J. Hawk, Darryn Colledge, Greg Jennings, Justin Harrell, Brandon Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Brian Brohm, Pat Lee, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews

Summary: 13 total picks, 5 starters right now, 4 backups/possible future starters, 2 on injured reserve and next year will be make-or-break season, 1 player on practice squad, and 1 player not on roster


Rounds 3-5: Marviel Underwood, Brady Poppinga, Junius Coston, Mike Hawkins, Abdul Hodge, Jason Spitz, Cory Rodgers, Will Blackmon, Ingle Martin, Tony Moll, James Jones, Aaron Rouse, Allen Barbre, David Clowney, JerMichael Finley, Jeremy Thompson, Josh Sitton, Breno Giacomini, T.J. Lang, Quinn Johnson, Jamon Meredith

Summary: 21 total picks, 5 starters, 7 backups/possible future starters, 8 players not on roster, and 1 on practice squad


Rounds 6-7: Mike Montgomery, Craig Bragg, Kurt Campbell, Will Whitticker, Johnny Jolly, Tyrone Culver, Dave Tollefson, Korey Hall, Desmond Bishop, Mason Crosby, DeShawn Wynn, Clark Harris, Matt Flynn, Brett Swain, Jarius Wynn, Brandon Underwood, Brad Jones

Summary: 17 total picks, 2 starters, 9 backups/possible future starters, 6 players not on roster


So, breaking it down a little further...

Rounds 1-2: 38% of picks are starters, 92% of picks are on roster in some fashion (including IR, practice squad, etc)

Rounds 3-5: 24% of picks are starters, 62% of picks are on the roster

Rounds 6-7: 12% of picks are starters, 65% of picks are on the roster


All together, there have been 51 draft picks during Thompson's tenure, and 71% of those picks are on the current roster. While it seems like some of those high picks are busts, overall I think these are pretty good numbers. While it would be nice to have some more home runs/Pro Bowl caliber players, there is no doubt that most of these drafts have been pretty good, and even many of the backups are key contributors that are still developing.

Side note: Some of the draft picks not on the roster are on other teams' active rosters, including Abdul Hodge (Bengals), Tony Moll (Ravens), Dave Tollefson (Giants), David Clowney (Jets), Mike Hawkins (Raiders IR)


I thought there was some interesting food for thought there.
The GM
Now that Brohm was actually cut, can we once and for all end this idiotic notion that Thompson "isnt going to release a player he drafted high" thinking. Clearly, cutting Brohm puts that theory in its proper place.
sinatra
QUOTE (The GM @ Sep 9 2009, 12:51 AM) *
Now that Brohm was actually cut, can we once and for all end this idiotic notion that Thompson "isnt going to release a player he drafted high" thinking. Clearly, cutting Brohm puts that theory in its proper place.


I'm not sure I agree with that yet. I don't think he cuts Brohm without being fairly certain that he would clear waivers.
JASIII
Mike Hawkins is still in the league???? That blew my mind for the day.
Packer Backer NY
QUOTE (Big Dave @ Sep 8 2009, 08:25 PM) *
Yeah, pretty much.

I mean, I think Thompson gets criticized a whole hell of a lot more mainly because this is how he builds our franchise.
If he was active in FA bringing in premiere talent, but swung and missed in a couple drafts, we wouldn't put so much emphasis on these player 'busts'. But, this is M.O., and 'bust' picks like Harrell, Brohm, Lee, etc. get exaggerated more. But let's be real here, I'd be willing to wager Thompson has hit on a more picks than he has lost in his drafts. I get more and more excited about the 2007 draft everyday...anyways, all GM's have busts, but it's how you overcome them building a team.


Agree completely. Thompson and his failed draft picks stand out more because he is less active in FA than Wolf was. Sometimes it gets frustrating though because there are draft picks that seem questionable (Brohm in the 2nd comes to mind) when a good FA could have filled that spot. A good backup QB instead of drafting Brohm I would have thought would have been a safer and a better move.

It looks like we should have a good team though, inspite of these bumps and hopefully the team that Thompson built will be a winner for years to come.
66_Ray
QUOTE (grabthar @ Sep 8 2009, 02:11 PM) *
Year Player Round
1999 Antuan Edwards 1
1999 Fred Vinson 2


Now we got value for Fred Vinson, in a trade for Ahman Green. Didn't we also trade Edwards? if so what did we get for him or who did we draft with the pick we got for him.
One of the best draft day trades ever made by a Packer GM was the deal that sent our pick to NE who took Jackson forcing reciever staved Denver to trade for Walker and GB taking Jennings.
I was old enough to clearly remeber the Favre trade and folks wanted Wolf's head for that. I remember Holmgren stating that none of the QBs were stepping up and taking the job Magic, Dilwig or Favre. That trade was no sure thing, and as far as I remember that wasn't a draft day trade. To sum up we need to factor in if a player wasn't working for us, what did the team get for him. The GM who makes the trade has to be given credit for a player they traded for. The GMs job is to build a team, I don't care if all his number ones fall flat on their face just so his number 3, 4 and 5 become winning players.
The reason I get upset with TT is his lack of quality FAs, please save me the Woodson argument. I give him credit for Woodson and Chillar just not as much as some.
There was one move will take a Super Bowl victory for me to get over, that said I think TT does well in drafting.
heavyD & da Pack
QUOTE (Packer Backer NY @ Sep 9 2009, 09:09 AM) *
Agree completely. Thompson and his failed draft picks stand out more because he is less active in FA than Wolf was. Sometimes it gets frustrating though because there are draft picks that seem questionable (Brohm in the 2nd comes to mind) when a good FA could have filled that spot. A good backup QB instead of drafting Brohm I would have thought would have been a safer and a better move.

It looks like we should have a good team though, inspite of these bumps and hopefully the team that Thompson built will be a winner for years to come.

Not to add more adnaseum to the never ending debate; Wolf stated he would have a difficult time in FA if he was still GM. Times change; no real FA to the so called Plan B FA to some forced FA (If GB does not sign White, does Wolf still make the top grade??) to open FA to salary cap FA and beyond. That is why I don't get the FA thing on Thompson. GB is a small market and absolutely cannot compete with the big boys and therefore cannot afford the $$$$ lost on big FA that does not produce. Look at how Thompson structures contracts; smaller SB, RB down the road and active roster bonsuses. Woodson may not have been thrilled to sign with GB, but he has become extremely important to this team. Call it luck or circumstance, but GB did sign him to a large contract. Pickett signed a smaller contract, but was equally important. Without these two specific players, GB would not be in the position they are in today.

Thompson's MO is to make more picks when the team needs depth. He changed this year as the team did not require additional picks. He made a strong play for a player that he and his team felt fit their system. Whether Matthews pans out or not, Thompson continues to bring in talented players to stock the team. It is the player and coaches' job to develop that talent into productivity.

The current team has been built by Thompson mostly by draft picks and retaining the players he feels offer the best for the team. Failed draft picks or failed FA, at the end of the day, did the GM bring in enough talent and potential not just for today but for the near future. That means running short here or there and young is some areas to make the team viable for the future. This team is set up to be quite good and a perrenial contender for years to come. We are short in some areas on experience, but have the talent to make it work.
maxman44
This may be too simple of a way to look at this but I'm not that smart...

The only difference between 'hitting' with high round players versus low round players is the money (an important difference).

What's most important is the % of good 'hits' versus bad IMHO...
craig
I agree with the point that since Thompson's team-building is almost 100% predicated on drafting, that he needs to be a really good drafter if the plan is going to work. "It's a crapshoot", "it happens to everybody", there is tons of truth in comments like that. But somehow Thompson's whole program is predicated on the notion that it's not totally a crapshoot, and that his drafts will have a higher success rate than what happens to everybody. That's how we want to get way ahead of the average NFL team, by drafting better.

I've generally been a Thompson supporter. I do think that the draft is really the way to go, and I think that there is an intelligence and scouting analysis that make it not a totally random crapshoot.

I'm not advocating that Thompson should go all free-agent. I think that's probably not the way to go at all. But relative to the original post, I think it's fair that if you took Wolf's FA-home runs away, that based on his drafting alone he wouldn't be remembered so favorably. He had a lot of misses on his high picks.

I think to that degree Thompson and Wolf have something in common. I think they both are more above average with later picks than with high picks. Both of these guys loved to scout, themselves (I don't think either just delegated to their hired scouts), and I think both along with their scouting teams have been very effective at finding "2nd day" talent (using the old parlance to include rounds 4-7).

To some degree that seems especially striking with TT's recent drafts. From 07, harrell, Jackson, and Rouse are all three "1st day" picks who may not be far from the cut edge. From last year, Brohm has already been cut, and even though he's hurt most of the time Lee doesn't look far from the cut edge even when he's been occassionally healthy. But in rounds 4-7, Barbre, Bishop, Hall, Crosby, and Wynn all appear to be integral players. From 08, contrast Brohm and Lee early (both of whom look to be poor value relative to their spot) with Sitton, Geno, Flynn, and Swain, all of whom are in the mix and look like good value relative to their spots. (Finley looks to be very good value relative to his spot too, which was very late 3rd. So I almost feel like lumping him more in with the 4th-and-later picks than the "high" picks.) Thompson is in no risk of getting cut, although it remains to be seen whether he'll ever be good in actual games or not. So I'm not sure whether he should list as good value or not relative to his spot.

It's almost like TT's diligence in scouting ends up giving him more above-average value in his later picks.

Personally I think that may be more indicative of actual scouting acumen, as will project into the future. Harrell is a special case; given his former injury history, I don't think it would be fair for me to argue that his getting injured for us is random.

But I do feel as if the injuries to Murphy, Underwood, Lee, and Jackson, that those are random. I don't blame TT and the scouts for those injuries. Injuries are to large degree a crapshoot and "it can happen to anybody".

So overall I think the drafting/scouting has been mostly very good. Picking a guy who gets hurt, that isn't normally a mistake, although in harrell's case perhaps that should have been pre-anticipated. I can see the point that some think that Brohm, Lee, Rouse, and jackson have been scouting mistakes apart from injury. (That even when healthy, they just aren't that good).

heavyD & da Pack
I don't think he needs to out draft everyone. He uses numbers to select players at positions of need and those that always need drafting. He is a good evaluator of talent, but one does not know how that will translate in the pros. Look at Hawk even Larinitis (sp??); both from OSU and both highly rated. Neither has been lights out and the other guy stays in school and got drafted later. Even so, I believe that drafting in the late rounds is where the depth and diamonds are found.

Thompson, like Wolf, are similar to other GMs in the early rounds; win a few and lose a lot. But Wolf and Thompson both have done well in the later rounds; it is that Thompson makes more picks for his team by trading down when he does not see a discernable difference in the players available. Wolf did this as well. Both guys seems to pick a QB type HC, so that their team can develop QB for trade and for depth on their own team.

Wolf did not have success in his early years and Thompson has been mixed in the first few years of running the show. However, I would think most fans of GB should look at this team that Thompson developed with a lot of draft picks and some very timely FAs very favorably. Every team will have holes in some areas of depth that will constantly require replenishing. Overall, GB's depth is very good and the talent seems very good as well.

Sure, we would all like our GM to have a higher %%% of top picks make a bigger impact, but it is not required. Some 4th, 5th & 6th round picks turn out better than the 1st and 2nd round picks more than maybe they should.

Still, big time FAs don't happen very often and to GB's current MO, they are too expensive to make the impact that the team wants. Again, small market teams cannot afford to waste tens of millions of dollars (Haynesworth) on one player that may or may not work out and may or may not cause numerous issues.
Heatseeker
QUOTE (maxman44 @ Sep 9 2009, 09:31 AM) *
What's most important is the % of good 'hits' versus bad IMHO...


That's exactly it, Max.

A percentage. And that percentage is largely dictated by chance (not the all knowing wisdom of a GM and scout team).

That's why I think people get miffed. Because Thompson, in building through the draft is in a way, rolling the dice with wins and losses. Granted, a free agent can be just as big of a risk, but most of them have at least proven they can play in the NFL. Unlike a guy like Harrell, who, we could still really use right now who is on the bench yet again. Yes, Harrell was injured lifting weights, but there's most definitely something with his muscu-skeletal makeup that isn't agreeing with the rigors of playing in the NFL.
Phishtar
QUOTE (Heatseeker @ Sep 9 2009, 11:25 AM) *
That's exactly it, Max.

A percentage. And that percentage is largely dictated by chance (not the all knowing wisdom of a GM and scout team).

That's why I think people get miffed. Because Thompson, in building through the draft is in a way, rolling the dice with wins and losses. Granted, a free agent can be just as big of a risk, but most of them have at least proven they can play in the NFL. Unlike a guy like Harrell, who, we could still really use right now who is on the bench yet again. Yes, Harrell was injured lifting weights, but there's most definitely something with his muscu-skeletal makeup that isn't agreeing with the rigors of playing in the NFL.



TT plays the odds very well, if he is rolling dice. I think it is about percentages and I think that's why TT is so willing to trade down to acquire extra picks. You can't guarantee that a guy you draft is going to make it in the NFL, but you can hedge your bet by increasing the number of guys you draft.
To that end, while TT has made his fair share of questionable picks, he has protected himself by stocking up on extra picks, allowing himself some wiggle room, and with the percentages listed in this thread, I'd say he's doing an excellent job.
chunkymonkey
QUOTE (heavyD & da Pack @ Sep 9 2009, 08:35 AM) *
Not to add more adnaseum to the never ending debate; Wolf stated he would have a difficult time in FA if he was still GM. Times change; no real FA to the so called Plan B FA to some forced FA (If GB does not sign White, does Wolf still make the top grade??) to open FA to salary cap FA and beyond. That is why I don't get the FA thing on Thompson. GB is a small market and absolutely cannot compete with the big boys and therefore cannot afford the $$$$ lost on big FA that does not produce. Look at how Thompson structures contracts; smaller SB, RB down the road and active roster bonsuses. Woodson may not have been thrilled to sign with GB, but he has become extremely important to this team. Call it luck or circumstance, but GB did sign him to a large contract. Pickett signed a smaller contract, but was equally important. Without these two specific players, GB would not be in the position they are in today.

Thompson's MO is to make more picks when the team needs depth. He changed this year as the team did not require additional picks. He made a strong play for a player that he and his team felt fit their system. Whether Matthews pans out or not, Thompson continues to bring in talented players to stock the team. It is the player and coaches' job to develop that talent into productivity.

The current team has been built by Thompson mostly by draft picks and retaining the players he feels offer the best for the team. Failed draft picks or failed FA, at the end of the day, did the GM bring in enough talent and potential not just for today but for the near future. That means running short here or there and young is some areas to make the team viable for the future. This team is set up to be quite good and a perrenial contender for years to come. We are short in some areas on experience, but have the talent to make it work.


Good post. I especially agree with the question about Reggie White. He brought so much to the team that without him I'm not sure Wolf scores so high,because without him I'm not sure they would have made the superbowl.

It really doesn't matter how you get there, but it does matter if you get there- winning that is. The ultimate judgement will be about whether he brought in the talent to reach the superbowl, not about how he gets there.
Heatseeker
QUOTE (Phishtar @ Sep 9 2009, 02:52 PM) *
TT plays the odds very well, if he is rolling dice. I think it is about percentages and I think that's why TT is so willing to trade down to acquire extra picks. You can't guarantee that a guy you draft is going to make it in the NFL, but you can hedge your bet by increasing the number of guys you draft.
To that end, while TT has made his fair share of questionable picks, he has protected himself by stocking up on extra picks, allowing himself some wiggle room, and with the percentages listed in this thread, I'd say he's doing an excellent job.


Oh I agree,

I never said that his method was a bad one. Just playing a little devil's advocate - that's all.

In loading up on draft picks, he certainly does increase the odds that the team will land a starter. Even if his overall success percentage isn't that high, he still parlays that by simply drafting more than most teams.
Skyshadow
QUOTE (Heatseeker @ Sep 11 2009, 07:50 AM) *
In loading up on draft picks, he certainly does increase the odds that the team will land a starter. Even if his overall success percentage isn't that high, he still parlays that by simply drafting more than most teams.

That's an excellent point that I never thought of in exactly that way.

I'd say that approach even lets him take calculated risks* in places throughout the draft without as much risk. Harrell probably being a good example -- I mean, sure, the guy was injury prone and everybody knew it, but obviously TT thought there was a decent chance he'd pan out once he hit the NFL.

Again, like I said earlier: You can have as many busts as you want so long as you have just enough successes to fill out the roster. And in loading up on picks, as you pointed out, lets him play the odds.


* I was going to say 'gamble on', but that seemed like a seriously incorrect term for what TT does.
heavyD & da Pack
QUOTE (Skyshadow @ Sep 11 2009, 01:04 PM) *
That's an excellent point that I never thought of in exactly that way.

I'd say that approach even lets him take calculated risks* in places throughout the draft without as much risk. Harrell probably being a good example -- I mean, sure, the guy was injury prone and everybody knew it, but obviously TT thought there was a decent chance he'd pan out once he hit the NFL.

Again, like I said earlier: You can have as many busts as you want so long as you have just enough successes to fill out the roster. And in loading up on picks, as you pointed out, lets him play the odds.


* I was going to say 'gamble on', but that seemed like a seriously incorrect term for what TT does.

I believe this from the start. FA just does not provide that many top level players and the few that are available tend to become overpaid and not nearly as good as advertised. By drafting a lot of players, the number of "hits" can be reduced as long as your % is as good or better than most. Then, keep your money to reward/extend/resign your picks and even players that you acquired in other means (Grant, Pickett, Woodson, Jenkins...).
tempe85
QUOTE (grabthar @ Sep 8 2009, 01:11 PM) *
2001 Torrance Marshall 3


I certainly don't consider Marshall a bust. He busted his neck, could have been a special player.
heavyD & da Pack
QUOTE (tempe85 @ Sep 15 2009, 04:13 AM) *
I certainly don't consider Marshall a bust. He busted his neck, could have been a special player.

Marshall was not very good and did not have neck problems. Terrence Murphy is who you are talking about. He was a 2nd rounder and did have the neck thing...
Heatseeker
QUOTE (Skyshadow @ Sep 11 2009, 12:04 PM) *
That's an excellent point that I never thought of in exactly that way.

I'd say that approach even lets him take calculated risks* in places throughout the draft without as much risk. Harrell probably being a good example -- I mean, sure, the guy was injury prone and everybody knew it, but obviously TT thought there was a decent chance he'd pan out once he hit the NFL.

Again, like I said earlier: You can have as many busts as you want so long as you have just enough successes to fill out the roster. And in loading up on picks, as you pointed out, lets him play the odds.


* I was going to say 'gamble on', but that seemed like a seriously incorrect term for what TT does.


Yeah exactly.

Harrell certainly was a high risk/high reward kind of pick, but when you couple it with the increased number of draft picks and later-round successes, it made sense.

Me, I still would have drafted Michael Griffin that year, but I can see why Harrell was the pick.
WCH
QUOTE (Heatseeker @ Sep 9 2009, 02:25 PM) *
Granted, a free agent can be just as big of a risk, but most of them have at least proven they can play in the NFL. Unlike a guy like Harrell, who, we could still really use right now who is on the bench yet again. Yes, Harrell was injured lifting weights, but there's most definitely something with his muscu-skeletal makeup that isn't agreeing with the rigors of playing in the NFL.


That's the problem with Free Agents -- almost nobody has a body built to hold up to the rigors of the NFL. How often do we see (and forget about) guys like Joe Johnson, LeCharles Bentley, and Lavar Arrington -- who sign as big-name Pro Bowlers in FA; and then promptly get injured and never play again. Often, players are nearing their breaking-point when they hit the FA market.

Whenever I talk to fellow Packer fans about Aaron Rodgers (I live in Michigan, so it isn't often) I'm a bit reluctant to get too excited, because I know that Brett Favre isn't the norm, Erik Kramer is. Aaron is far more likely to have three good seasons and then watch his career crumble due to injuries, as he is to make it into Canton. And let's not even bring up Carson "Somebody is going to get killed playing in the NFL" Palmer, who looked like the next truly great QB just a few years ago.

I'd be willing to bet that due to injuries and scheme-related-issues; FA-busts are just as common as draft busts. And more expensive.
Heatseeker
QUOTE (WCH @ Sep 16 2009, 12:05 AM) *
I'd be willing to bet that due to injuries and scheme-related-issues; FA-busts are just as common as draft busts. And more expensive.


That's a point that could be discussed and debated to death, WCH - mainly due to the subjective definition of the word, "bust." You certainly can't say that Vince Young is a, "cheap" bust in any way. How much guaranteed money did he get again?

When referring to a draft pick, we most commonly use the term on what? A high round pick who doesn't pan out, right? (i.e. Justin Harrell, Vince Young, etc.) We say this because the team spends a ton on them both in money, and in production lost (or at least, never realized) You never would really say, "Jarius Wynn is a bust!" if he doesn't pan out. Dude was a 6th round pick. His expectations aren't that high.

You could make the point that the same could be said for free agents. That the high-dollar guys like you pointed out (LaVar Arrington, Javon Walker, etc.) who end up getting injured or just plain sucking are indeed, busts.

But what about the mid-level free agents? The ones that the large majority of us free-agent-signing-supporters routinely call for? What is their bust rate?

Higher? Lower? I don't know, but I'd guess because they're not, "big names" that a guy like say, Kevin Carter, if we would have signed him and he turned out to not be so good, that the backlash would have been pretty minimal. Why? Because the investment is low both financially, and, because you're not really losing anything as you would be with a draft pick who, "busts."

Conversely, if Kevin Carter (and I'm not advocating Carter, just an example...) signs here for 2 million, turns out to have some real gas in the tank, makes some big plays and ends up being a positive leader on defense, then not only do you not bust, but you actually get a much higher return from your investment than you do with a draft pick.

Because a guy like say, Aaron Curry is expected to be great. Because of the extreme money being paid to him and because of his draft position.

We talk about Ted Thompson and that whole risk/reward kind of thing with draft picks. But IMO, free agents, while they certainly do have many busts, have a lower risk and higher reward if you pick and choose your free agents wisely (i.e. not Daniel Snyder).

Obviously, Thompson has been very selective with free agent signings, but I for one, believe there is room for more.
ammek
QUOTE (Heatseeker @ Sep 16 2009, 03:21 PM) *
Obviously, Thompson has been very selective with free agent signings, but I for one, believe there is room for more.


Seconded.

A known quantity is less of a risk than a rookie. Always. Sure, he'll have to adapt to a new scheme and new teammates, but you have tons of evidence from coaches, players and film to go on. Money is another matter. But a mid-level free agent would appear to be about the safest investment you can make in the NFL. (It's still not totally safe, of course.)

My main criticism of Thompson in this respect is that he sometimes stockpiles draft picks at a particular position, leaving the depth chart full of indistinguishable, untested projects. This is the downside of trading down for extra picks. You end up starting guys who are not NFL-ready because your roster is full of them. It is clear, for instance, that Barbre, Giacomini and Lang (and Moll, and possibly Meredith) all belong on an NFL roster, but it is not yet clear that any of them deserves to be starting. Bring in a veteran, and you can wait until you are sure that one of them is ready to start; and the youngsters' progress should also be boosted by veteran competition.

Of course this is somewhat an idealized picture: there isn't always a fairly-priced veteran available, and you might not get him even if there is. However, I feel that Barbre has become the starting RT by default (just as Flynn won the backup QB job last year by default), because the coaches felt he was less unready than Giacomini, without any serious attempt being made to bring in a less risky (lower-upside, lower downside) candidate.
Pugger
Some of this angst about TT and FA is TT will sign guys that aren't that well known by fans. One example is Chillar. When he was signed a lot of fans either shrugged their shoulders or moaned about TT signing yet another nobody. Now most fans are thrilled with this guy. And FA today isn't like it was in Wolf's day. Teams literally prevent their prized FAs from leaving by slapping franchise tags on these players making it cost something ridiculous for another team to try to acquire these players - like Peppers this offseason.
heavyD & da Pack
QUOTE (Pugger @ Sep 16 2009, 02:20 PM) *
Some of this angst about TT and FA is TT will sign guys that aren't that well known by fans. One example is Chillar. When he was signed a lot of fans either shrugged their shoulders or moaned about TT signing yet another nobody. Now most fans are thrilled with this guy. And FA today isn't like it was in Wolf's day. Teams literally prevent their prized FAs from leaving by slapping franchise tags on these players making it cost something ridiculous for another team to try to acquire these players - like Peppers this offseason.

Completely agree... while players like Corey Williams gets tagged and traded for a 2nd...
AtTheMurph
Interesting discussion about the draft and FA signings. I thought I'd add a little to the conversation.

I love how Thompson has a designto build the roster. Of course plans and actual performance don't always meet in the W/L record but the process of building a competitive teram with a chance to win Lombardi Trophies is a bit like building a chess board.

From where Thompson came from with the team he really had to rebuild depth and fix the cap situation first. The only way to do that was to acquire draft choices and add lots of young guys. He's done that pretty well. He also had the unenviable job of finding a replacement for a aging QB and it appears he's done that as well. And that was the one key componenet he had to get done if the team was going to be a contender.

So as I view things, he's moving into phase 2 of the contender building phase. That's resigning his key emerging players and adding some high quality draft choices with chances to be playmakers - hence the trade up for matthews who I thought might have been the pick at 9.

I would expect to see a few more of those types of moves overthe coming years but now Thompson also has the team in place to make signing a higher priced, key FA sensible. I mean what would have been the point of signing a guy like Jason Taylor four years ago? Was a guy like that going to put the team over the top and help win it all? Or was he going to add marginally to production to an understaffed team while eating up cap space that dampens the future ability to sing you Greg Jennings and Nick Collins, guys who are young and ascending along with the team.

Someone earlier did a percentage hit number on TTs draft choices and it looks to me that the number is pretty darn high, especially when you realize that Thompson has drafted more players over the last 5 years than any other GM. He's made alot of picks and the vast majority are on this team and many of those are starters today and a few can easily be projected as starters in the coming years. He's built a pretty deep team.

Now is when he can start looking for a Free Agent or two. Tha cap is in pretty good shape, the depth is there and most importantly a good QB is taking snaps. I think Thompson is now in the position where he can spend some money and feel good about taking a risk on a FA because he has the base team ready to compete and a guy like a Jason Taylor might make alot more sense today then he would have 4 years ago (assuming he was the same age and player) I think you get the point.

Heatseeker
QUOTE (Pugger @ Sep 16 2009, 01:20 PM) *
Some of this angst about TT and FA is TT will sign guys that aren't that well known by fans. One example is Chillar. When he was signed a lot of fans either shrugged their shoulders or moaned about TT signing yet another nobody. Now most fans are thrilled with this guy. And FA today isn't like it was in Wolf's day. Teams literally prevent their prized FAs from leaving by slapping franchise tags on these players making it cost something ridiculous for another team to try to acquire these players - like Peppers this offseason.


Eh, I'm sure there were people that moaned about it, but I think that demographic is dwindling pretty rapidly now that Thompson has proven he can get mid-level free agents that turn out to be pretty good.

I liked the Chillar signing simply because I saw what happened with Pickett and thought it could be a similar situation.

Damn I love when I'm right.

Even more so, I love when Thompson is right.

Guys like Chillar, Grant (though he was a trade, but same premise) Pickett, etc. all mid-level guys who add a lot to this team and have ended up (IMO) being a very good value when you look at their production-to-investment ratio.

If you ask me, keep those guys comin' Ted!
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