Conventional logic here says Adrian Peterson. He's young, strong, he's due for a gigantic year and the Vikes have a decent overall team.

But I'm really seriously considering taking DeAngelo Williams. Something tells me he's going to have an insane year. Like, phenomenal kind of stats.

I think right now it's between those two, but I'd entertain others.

Thoughts?

MJD I think he could have a monster year. Also Turner could be thrown into the mix as well. I like Williams but not at number one he will get touches lost to Stewart. But if you could trade down to say 4 or 5 I would take Williams easily. Other wise I would choose between AP, MJD, Turner.

Unless it's PPR, you've got to go with Peterson. You might make a case for Turner. D'Angelo Williams often falls into the 2nd round. The general consensus is that he can't repeat what he did last year. He had an inordinate amount of TDs from long distance and that's hard to repeat. Plus Delhomme might not getting as much respect as he has in the past after fading late last year.

If you really want him, I'd try to trade down in the late first.

FWIW, I have number 1 and I'm taking AP no doubt. But, my reasons are kind of emotional because I figure if he sucks I'll be happy because it means the Vikings are sucking and if he's good at least my FF team is doing all right (I'd still prefer he sucked).

Note, that I have a tendency to jinx players, so you might want to choose the opposite of me.

I had #1 in one of my leagues - I took AP without hesitation. I have zero confidence in D. Williams repeating last year's performance, I think Turner is due to take a step back, and I'm not high on MJD. Here's why:

DeAngelo Williams - He played out of his mind last year. We're talking insane. Additionally, he had an inordinately high number of TDs compared to his carries. There's no way for RB's to maintain that sort of ratio - they all come back to the norm eventually. It's the way the game works.

Michael Turner - I think he's more of the real deal than Williams is, but I don't think he's gonna put up the same numbers as last year. Plus, he did benefit some from a friendly schedule last year (that applies to Williams, too), while this year's is tougher - they play the NFC East, a division stacked with great defenses. I still expect a good year, but I believe his numbers last year were a bit on the high side.

MJD - I don't have a concrete reason to be down on this guy. I just don't totally trust a back who's stepping into a primetime role after splitting the carries in previous years. He may end up being a legit top 5, but I'm skeptical.


Now one guy I am big on that I think is going to far outperform expectations: Ryan Grant. I know, homer pick. But in my defense, I was absolutely down on Grant last year. The offseason nonsense, his injury...it all told me that he wasn't gonna meet expectations that he set the previous half season. But this year, that's all different. He's healthy. The offensive line looks to be the most promising in years (in regards to road paving, at least). And most important of all: extremely soft schedule, just like he had two years ago when he lit up the NFL. For that reason, I'm huge on Grant. I believe he's a top 5 back this year.

Here's a nice trade strategy this year: Let someone else draft Grant. Most people are considering Grant to be a low B to high C player this year. So you can take a low A or high B back, package him with a low B or high C receiver, and trade for Grant plus a high B low A receiver.

For example:

In one of my leagues, I drafted Forte and TO. I think Forte will have a great year, but I don't think it's gonna be quite as good as last year - Grant, on the other hand, I expect to have a much better season. Last year, these two guys had pretty similar performances. That means I absolutely expect Grant to outperform Forte. TO I expect to have a down year - he's one year older, doesn't have a great QB throwing to him, and has missed almost all of the preseason. So I packaged this deal:

Forte & TO for Grant & Colston

Colston had a pretty good year last season...when he wasn't hurt. I expect him to have a top 10 WR season this year. Personally, I think that trade will turn out great for me - and most people will accept it in a heartbeat, since they've already labeled Grant a flash in the pan.

Safe pick is Adrian Peterson.

The ballsy pick is DeAngelo Williams or Maurice Jones-Drew.

Well, after last night's 75-yard scamper, I think my team, the, "Erin Andrews Spy Planes" have reached a deal with Adrian Peterson.

Just too much to pass up with him.

I think that's a safe bet. I think he'll catch quite a few more passes this year as well with Favre at QB.