QUOTE (Jeremy @ Jun 9 2009, 11:31 AM)

I have not done a lick of research yet, but a few of my gut reactions to your list:
1. I would not take Rodgers over Brees. I'd probably put Brady and Brees in the top tier with Rodgers, Manning, Rivers, and McNabb in the 2nd tier. I have to think the Packers will look to establish the run more this year and play a little better defense.
2. Palmer at 7 surprises me. He has been invisible the past couple years. Looks like you're predicting a nice bounceback season for him. I hope you're right as I have him in a dynasty league and Kurt Warner isn't getting any younger.
3. Speaking of Warner...
4. Given the bottom of your top 10, it looks like it the QB position is going to be thin again this year.
Well, I don't make cookie cutter rankings. Those kind of rankings don't succeed.
In real life, Brees is a better QB then Rodgers. But in fantasy, Rodgers gets the edge (at least in my scoring).
Since it's only 1pt for every 25 yards in my leagues, Brees' 600 yard trump over Rodgers in passing yards is very minuscule. That's only 24 more points. The INT are pretty even as well. Some may wonder why I have Rodgers throwing 16 INT this year compared to his 13 last year and it's very simple, look at the schedule. Brees' schedule is easier but look at his past seasons and see that his INT to pass attempts ratio has been steadily climbing with his age. So I think it's pretty safe to say he'll tie his career high in INT for a season.
So what's the big difference between the 2? TD's and rushing yards. Brees will be lucky if he gets 20 rushing yards, but there's nothing there that tells me Rodgers won't be going over 200 rushing yards for the season again (I have him at 220). That's 22 points, which makes up for the difference Brees has over him in passing yards. Then the thing that puts Rodgers over the edge is the 4 rushing TD's I currently have him projected to make, which puts him 4 TD's ahead of Brees or 24 more points. And that's the difference, 23 points separate the 2, and Rodgers has 24 points of rushing TD's.
But should have guts when it comes to rankings, that's the key. Rodgers has better receivers, he's younger, he can scramble and in turn has another way of scoring TD's.
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When it comes to Palmer, he was hurt almost the entire season last year, but not for 2 years, I think you meant to say one. Anyways, sure TJ's gone now but CIN signed Laveranues Coles. TJ's a little better but also keep in mind that Chris Henry is shaping up to be a dark horse this year. He's been in legal troubles but from what I've read, that's past him now. Before the past couple, troubled seasons, Henry looked like a better compliment to Ochocinco then TJ did. And that's your other factor, Ochocinco is back and healthy.
Look for Cincy to return as one of the best passing offenses in the league this year.
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It's pre training camp. After traning camp is over, who knows what the situation will be? Boldin and ARI's front office might have everything patched up, and if that's the case, Warner's season will definitely get a look-over. But, no Boldin means Breaston is a #2 and he was just a product of running down the middle wide open because of 2 other factors (if you know what I mean). Not saying he's bad, but if he was a #2, expect a season like Peerless Price had when he went to ATL.
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In terms of it being thin of "elite" players, I would concur. But I don't know about forming a strategy to get one yet, when you still have solid guys like Garrard, Ryan, and Manning (aka, my next 3), who'll put up very nice seasons (just not spectacular).