I have a very busy Friday, so I thought I'd do this today.
I have gone back and forth on this stuff over and over and I have came upon the conclusion that we cannot miss on this draft. If we screw up this draft we are in some trouble. I think we have quite a few holes and I believe that Ted Thompson's theory of shoring up holes internally will not change any time soon.
We put a lot of pressure on our drafts. And with the change from 4-3 to 3-4, many of the real staples of our future defense (DLine, OLB) as well as our aging position of extreme need (OT), the pressure to find the hole-fillers in this draft is as high as ever.
Therefore, I really feel that this draft cannot be a "boom or bust" prospect laden draft. We have to find solid, if not spectacular, good fits who may not turn into all pros, but won't turn into a bust either.
Best example I can think of is Aaron Maybin. This guy could be an absolutely amazing OLB in a 3-4. But his bust factor is quite high as well.
There are just way too many rumor-esque (and TT track record) thoughts going through my head not to at least take into consideration a trade down scenario as well. So, here goes. A bit of a crap shoot, so I provide multiple options, just in case.
Round 1
Hope: BJ Raji NT
Settle: Tyson Jackson DE
I want my first round pick to be either DLine, OLine or OLB. I think those are going to be the biggest determining factor of how we do as a team in the near future. Build from the line and move out from there. We've ignored that far too long. Lots of options even with that thought. Each one I looked at, I discarded.
Michael Oher? I question his pass protection and don't think he's good enough of a "lock". Andre Smith? Question his heart, bust potential high. Brian Orakpo? Love him, but can't be absolutely sure he can make the 3-4 OLB transition. Malcolm Jenkins, SOLID! but I question his speed and I look at the really solid 3-4 teams and honestly, they make due pretty well with decent, but not great CB's. Aaron Maybin, see above, bust potential high.
If BJ Raji is there, I cannot think of a guy who fits the 3-4 NT slot as perfectly as he does. And I think that's the most important slot on the DLine in this new defense. His bust potential seems VERY low. And he even has quite a bit of upside with his quickness and pass rush ability. I really fell in love with the guy in the last few weeks. And the difference in the Baltimore Defense after Haloti Ngata took over was like night and day. I want that as well.
Raji likely won't be there. So, if not, I take Tyson Jackson and smile. Is there a guy out there who has less of a bust potential then Jackson? Solid, not spectacular. Perfect size. Perfect frame. Perfect strength. Fits the 3-4 DE slot to a "t". Grab him, put him at one of the DE slots from day one. Call it a day! Yay! I am totally ok with this. I don't love Tyson Jackson as a prospect, but I have so little doubt that he can be a darn good 3-4 DE, I feel absolutely satisfied bringing him in.
If we trade down, Tyson Jackson is my number one target without a question.
Round 2
dream: Eben Britton OT
wish: Larry English DE/OLB
settle: Clint Stintim OLB
I have a theory that Aaron Maybin is going to drop and be available at this spot, but I won't get THAT crazy. Eben Britton would be my dream scenario as a solid, not likely to bust, smart football Tackle. Solid guy, solid character, smart kid. End of story.
If not, I do like Larry English, again, however, I think he'll be gone by the time the Packers pick. I have some concern at his speed and if he can transition to the 3-4.
Therefore, I pick Clint Stintim. He's another absolutely-no-questions type of prospect. He has played the 3-4 as an OLB. No character questions. No transition issues. No doubt he can play the position. Take him, plug him in at ROLB opposite Aaron Kampman and there's almost no doubt he'll be at least average. I also am predicting with almost a mortal lock that this pick will be a trade down. I think Stintim will still be there where we trade down to pick.
Two gaping, massive, horrible holes filled. Now those guys that have potential (Jason Hunter, Jeremy Thompson, Justin Harrell, Alfred Malone) can still have "potential" but not have to be counted on. I'm ok with that.
round 3a and 3b coming soon
