While it's not set in stone yet, all signs point to DET drafting Stafford with their 1st this year.

I was discussing Stafford and the Lions with a co-worker and we made this point: The problem with drafting a QB so high is if he busts, he's totally worthless. He can't play any other positions. And you can't trade him because of all the damn money he makes. So you keep him on your roster for the duration of his contract, hoping every year will be different, thus failing to actually address the QB position.

On the flip side, you draft a guy real high at OT and he busts, you can try him at pretty much any other position along the OL and he can bring SOME value to your team. The same could be said for pretty much any LB.

Example #1:

Robert Gallery, Raiders

The guy played just OK at RT for the two years he was there. Moved to LT and played TERRIBLE. Was considered by many to be a huge bust.

Last year makes the move to LG and is an above average player at the position with the potential to be a pro-bowler some day.

Now paying Gallery the money he's making to play LG isn't ideal. But at least the guy is bringing some value to the team and he can help you win football games.


Example #2:

Alex Smith, 49ers

Now you could pick from any number of first round busts, but this guy is still on their roster.

I would argue Smith brings a significant negative value to his team. You have to consider the huge amount of money he's made, the roster spot he takes up, the 0 playing time, but maybe most importantly, the way he keeps that teams QB position in flux.

Think about it - they've got all this money invested in a guy that currently has a negative value. But he's young and he could come back in the future, so they'll just continue to ignore the QB position, the most important position in football to find out "for sure" that's he's worthless.


Lets take this one step further.

Lets say you take Stafford #1. There's a reasonable chance you're the worst team in the NFL again next year. Your 2010 draftboard looks like this:

#1 - Sam Bradford
#2 - Colt Mccoy
#3 - Tim Tebow (ok that might be going a little too far but I'm trying to make a point here)

Right now, I'd say Stafford grades out below all those guys, and if he has a rough start (again, very reasonable), he's got the initial bust label, what do you do if you're Detroit??????



My point with the Lions is this: Look back at your 1st round picks the last few years. The majority of them are no longer in the NFL. You need a LT, a QB, and a MLB to run your defense.

If you're serious about building a winning team, you'd hedge your bets with the LT or MLB, continue to improve the overall talent on your team (you were 0-16 last year for a reason), and take your pick of McCoy/Tebow/Bradford next year at the top of the draft.

Disagree. Stafford has a much stronger arm than the above 3. His decision making is questionable but has great upside IMO. His private workout was excellent. I am not saying that Stafford is the next Elway but will be a better pro than McCoy or Tebow IMO...Bradford a tossup. That said if I am Det I do not take Stafford. QB is the least of there worries

I think I'd rank them Bradford, Tebow, McCoy. As far as where Stafford would fit, right now I'd say he'd be about the same as Bradford on my board, but I don't think either one is a #1 overall player. I just started compiling my final Big Board for this draft, and I have Stafford #14 on my board (Sanchez at #6).

As far as Detroit goes, I just think that you never know when you'll have a shot at a franchise QB, so if you think one is available, you take him (so long as you have a reasonable need at QB). I do think that OT is the safest pick to take early in the 1st round, but QB is the most important position by far on a football team, so you have to go there if possible. If I were running Detroit, I would be stuck between Jason Smith and Mark Sanchez, not sure which way I'd go.

If I was the GM I would try and trade down.

But if I could not I would probably take either Smith or Monroe.

In my view, Detroit just has too many problems in the OL to try getting a young QB in there. Especially since they did not do much in FA to cure it.

Next year will be a good year for QB's.

Let's not forget, they also have a number twenty, which they can use on defense.

As someone who once was in favor of mandarich over sanders (what can I say, I felt we had so many problems that you couldn't run the ball until the line was fixed), I can say that a bust at tackle can definitely set you back. Either way, you pay your money and take your chances.

This is true, but you can't really argue with Mandrich, the guy was "never sober in GB" and roided out to the max. Who knows what he could have been.

Sirius says that the deal could be announced tonight. Also said the Lions have a handshake deal in place with Curry in case something would have not worked out.

a lot of posts on Rotoworld tonight on this topic from all over the place. Said the Curry deal was to use as leverage against Stafford and that contrary to other reports, Jason Smith wasn't an option.

I find that interesting because I also read something that the Rams might actually prefer Monroe to Smith so perhaps Smith falls, when he's been slotted at 1 or 2 for quite some time.

At first I was thinking that they should take Stafford as a new face of the franchise and I still think that is a good option. Then I saw a statistic on NFL Live that would definitely make me think twice if I was them. The Lions have ranked 32nd in the league for the last three years giving sacks up to defensive ends. Stafford is going to get killed out there if they take him and expect him to start right away! Lions fans better hope he has at least a year or two to learn the game from the sidelines before being thrown to the wolves.

The way that I look at it is that they could get a good OT at pick #20. I would think that either Britton or Beatty should be there, if not both. They also have 2 3rd-round picks and could package #20 and #65 to move up #13 or #14 if A. Smith or Oher falls that far. Both Washington and New Orleans might want to move down a few slots to add the first pick of the 3rd round.

Nobody is going to trade for the #1 pick, unfortunately for Detroit there's nobody available this year who's worth it. If they think Stafford can be their QB of the future, they need to work out a deal and draft him. They're a few years away from being a competitive team anyway, so they might as well use them as development years.

That said, it's a new regime in Detroit now. We can't expect them to continue to be as bad as they were under previous regimes.

You don't pass up franchise QBs when you have a chance at them. IMO Stafford is a Franchise QB. He needs some work and development, yes. . . but he would be the pick if I were running the Lions. If they can protect him I think that he'll end up being just fine for them. I'm just not a fan of Sanchez as a top 10 pick. He will be, but I wouldn't want to stake the future of my team on him.

I do not like the notion that you draft an OT over a QB or other highly rated prospect because he "might" bust and you want to get something out of him. You set your board and make your pick with confidence and solidarity. Whoever is your top guy should be your pick. End of discussion.

Lions agree to terms with Stafford.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090424/SPOR...4/1051/SPORTS03

6 years, $78 million; $41.7 million guaranteed.

...Wow...

For the sake of comparison, Rodgers has a six-year, $65 million contract; with $20 million guaranteed. Romo: 6 years, $67.4 million; $30 million guaranteed.

Billon dollar blunder to set the Lions back another 10 years. This is near equal to the most guratneed money ever which just was Haynesworth deal for a guy who has never played! This proves owners are morons and the NFL needs a rookie cap bad!

I agee with the rookie cap. No team wants to have a top 5 pick. Its getting stupid.

My thoughts on Stafford to the Lions...



...B..U...S...T.

What a ridiculous deal.

Aaron Curry offered to sign for less than what Miami gave Long.

The NFL needs a rookie pay scale now.

I'll agree that he's getting paid way too damn much money, but I'm going to disagree with the idea that Stafford will bust with the Lions. Jim Schwartz is a smart guy and a defensive coach who is very similar to Jeff Fisher. The Lions are going to place a new focus on the offensive and defensive lines and they will become a much more powerful team. They will eventually run the ball better and stop the run better. Football basics 101. IMO they missed by drafting Pettigrew over Oher, but otherwise I think they had a very good draft and offseason. I wouldn't put Stafford on the field at all this season, but starting next year I bet he's ready to play and he ends up being much better than most people are expecting. I let Daunte take the beating this year that a developing team is going to take, let some of the younger players gain experience and confidence and then hand the keys over to the quarterback of the future in 2010.