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bogwon
Upon further review... Here ya go Ted

First, an important note - BPA (best player available) is a great idea during the early stages of building a team, however when using this strategy you need to actually pick... the BPA.

P.S. - Ted, your philosophy of trading down for more picks totally contradicts the BPA concept.

At this point the Packers need to switch from the BPA concept to the "fill the need" philosophy of drafting.

Now trust me, the following selections will fix most of the Packers personnel needs. The Caper hiring resolved the other main need with the team.

I realize that I have some of these players being taken at an earlier point in the draft than a lot of the prognosticators have them rated to go. It's a different philosophy, instead of waiting to see what falls to you in an attempt to get good value, select the players that you know are good a little earlier, at a point where you are sure they will be available. Also these guys have more attitude than a lot of the current players. The Packers need attitude.

Remember Ted, see the need... fill the need.

So that being said, if all of the other teams do their part, we should be able to execute the draft as follows...


#9 Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Jason Smith, Aaron Curry and Eugene Monroe will be gone. B.J. Raji now has a positive test and is over-rated in my opinion. Orakpo as an OLB is a total roll of the dice, Oher is a better OT than Brown is an OLB and ya need a 39 1/2 foot pole to keep away from Andre Smith. Oher will be an anchor at LT for the next decade. Move Clifton to RT for his last year.

#41 Jarron Gilbert DE San Jose St
Gilbert will be the best 3-4 DE out of this draft. Put him at RDE.

#73 Chris Baker NT/DE Hampton
Can play inside or out in a 3-4. Move him around. Speed and power. Inside pass rush. Get him at #73 or he'll be gone.

#83 Sammie Lee Hill NT Stillman
Perfect 3-4 space eater. He's like getting Ron Brace 40-45 picks later in the draft.

#109 Mitch King OLB Iowa
First went to Iowa as a LB, just like Kampman. Have him lose 15 lbs and he's our weakside pass rushing OLB. This guy is a football player, just like Kampman, only a little more bad assed.

#145 Chris Clemons S Clemson
Atari is a hitter, that's all, send him packing. Collins could be gone in free agency in a year. Rouse might be best as a nickel LB in the 3-4. So it's time to add a safety.

#182 Bear Pascoe TE Fresno St
The guy can block and catch. Perfect complement to Finley who can run and catch.

#187 Asaph Schwapp FB Notre Dame
Best blocking FB coming out. enough said.

#218 Lydon Murtha OT Nebraska
Right tackle a project with good potential.

I'd like to see Oher end up at LT, Hill at NT, Gilbert at RDE, Baker at LDE and King at WOLB.

Good luck Ted, we're all counting on you...
dabeene1
Good pickins!

I wonder how far oher could fall though, im fine with him at 9 but if we can get him at someplace in the teens all the better.

I think clifton wouldnt be great on the right, could he function? ya but usually you want your road grader over there. Plus i would like for oher to have a tutor and ride the bench a year.

Dont know bout mitch king becoming a LB, him losing weight would need to increase his speed by a decent amount. Possibly? ya but unlikely

Love the pick up of a blocking TE "Bear" is my fav late pick this year (and my fav's always work out)

Lot of people think we dont need to upgrade at the FB but that wishbone would look a little better with a little more thump. Kory hall I would keep and get ride of kuhn who is average.

bogwon
dabeene1,

Like I said pick them when you know you can get them. If Ted can move down a few picks and still get him fine.

Clifton would get us by for a year at RT, not the best but we don't have anyone that's better.

Oher will be good to go... so much more athletic than Clifton at this point.

King doesn't need to get his 40 time down, he needs to get his 15yd time down. So he doesn't need a lot of increase in speed.

I agree, Hall is a good back-up, Kuhn should be history.
PatS4
QUOTE (bogwon @ Apr 3 2009, 11:04 PM) *
dabeene1,

Like I said pick them when you know you can get them. If Ted can move down a few picks and still get him fine.

Clifton would get us by for a year at RT, not the best but we don't have anyone that's better.

Oher will be good to go... so much more athletic than Clifton at this point.

King doesn't need to get his 40 time down, he needs to get his 15yd time down. So he doesn't need a lot of increase in speed.

I agree, Hall is a good back-up, Kuhn should be history.


The way I see it, this statement contradicts your previous one about the BPA method.
There are "tiers" of players (not player1 thru player350)
and if TT can move down and get the player on that "tier" he wants,
then he is using the BPA method and trading down.

Really like your draft by the way!!

If King wouldn't convert to an OLB then how about David Veikune??

Good job.

Go Pack!!



bogwon
PatS4,

Thanks for the comments.

I agree there are tiers that the different quality players fit into. What I don't like is trading out of a higher tier level to acquire more picks at lower quality tiers. With Oher I feel the bottom of his tier is aprox. the 16th pick so I was only talking about moving down 3 to 4 picks max.

I also like Veikune and would consider him at #109 if King were unavailable.

Every draft there are a couple of players that that don't have the best measurables but you know they were born to be football players. I think King fits that description. If he's properly utilized he will be very good. He will play the run and rush the passer just don't put him in the position of having to drop into coverage, same with Kampman.
Terranimal
QUOTE (bogwon @ Apr 4 2009, 12:19 PM) *
PatS4,

Thanks for the comments.

I agree there are tiers that the different quality players fit into. What I don't like is trading out of a higher tier level to acquire more picks at lower quality tiers. With Oher I feel the bottom of his tier is aprox. the 16th pick so I was only talking about moving down 3 to 4 picks max.

I also like Veikune and would consider him at #109 if King were unavailable.

Every draft there are a couple of players that that don't have the best measurables but you know they were born to be football players. I think King fits that description. If he's properly utilized he will be very good. He will play the run and rush the passer just don't put him in the position of having to drop into coverage, same with Kampman.



Just a thought and my opinion; for what it's worth....(with inflation; probally down to a 1/2 cent. instead of 2 cents ohmy.gif )

Anyways; This seems to be a strange one according to just about everyone. There are only a few elite players and from there it depends on what team falls in love with what player. Outside a select few; even the top of this draft doesn't stand out as many of those in the past or possibilly next year's. So if there is a player you really need and believ he is heads and tails above everyone at his position in this draft; a team better pray he falls to them or else trade up.

But from there it's a mix bag of nuts. I've compared my notes with a ton of draft sites, draft shows on the radio and TV. Then as Patty said on her thread; when she looked or asked her drafting associates; everyone is all over the place as to rating and where players rate and should be drafted at.

So; again; if there's an elite BPA that is also a need; better either hope he is still there or trade up; otherwise it makes sense to trade down a few spots and pick up another 2nd or 3rd (based on the value of trading)

And just like others out there; I've re-adjusted my recent elite player board. For instance; even though he's the best at his position and greatly fills a need; I've taken Raji off my board. Everyone is allowed one mistake; but to be dirty mutiple times AND then test dirty on top of that at the combine; isn't a red flag; it's a sucker's bet. If he can't let go of the weed and learn from his first time; what is he gonna do in the NFL; comming in under the random testing and getting a ton of money thrown at him? I'll agree with former GM Charlie Casserley an this one.....

But after the "elite" there is a whole group of player that can help a club; but just where and whebn they'll go and get drafted is the million dollar question.
Patty
I agree. This year you could see players ranked in rounds 3 or 4 going earlier and the opposite you could see some players ranked high "slipping" into rounds 3 or 4

This draft this year is really shaping up as a needs based draft more so than most drafts. GM's are going to keep things quite conservative and fall back to what they need either this year or next year. Oh sure they will chirp to the high heavens that they got the best player on the board but when you evaluate closely you will discover how closely that BPA fit a primary need,

As coined earlier BPA at the position of want.
bogwon
Terranimal and Patty,

I feel that the only really good time to trade is early in a new administration when the GM is doing a house cleaning and trades down for more picks because they need a lot of new bodies on the team. Once a team has started to develop trading up more than 3 or 4 picks is almost always too costly for what you get and trading down more than a few picks almost always kills the quality of player you get.

If you have done your research properly you can always find players worthy of being drafted earlier than everone else thinks that player should go. It's always going to be a roll of the dice as to how long to wait until you are close to the point where the next team says "ok take this player here".

I do agree with Ted getting rid of Farve when he did and the fact that he doesn't spent much in free agency.
However, if there was ever a year that Ted should be drafting for need this is the year. If he continues his BPA program and drafts 3 WR's a QB, 2 RB's and a ILB he should be impeached and removed from office.


stuffin
QUOTE (Patty @ Apr 5 2009, 02:06 AM) *
I agree. This year you could see players ranked in rounds 3 or 4 going earlier and the opposite you could see some players ranked high "slipping" into rounds 3 or 4

This draft this year is really shaping up as a needs based draft more so than most drafts. GM's are going to keep things quite conservative and fall back to what they need either this year or next year. Oh sure they will chirp to the high heavens that they got the best player on the board but when you evaluate closely you will discover how closely that BPA fit a primary need,

As coined earlier BPA at the position of want.



Hey Patty,

I, pulled this (my) comment from my Million Mocks thread.

My disturbance is in regards to TT using the BPA philosophy this year. I don't necessarily disagree with it but, with the scrambled talent pool is this appropriate? I don't doubt there are very talented players to be drafted, but if TT reaches and grabs a BPA that doesn't fit (like a WR or developmental project), PACKERS FANS are gonna have a conniption..

I really think this needs based draft is messing up how draftniks see things shakin out. That is because many teams have multiple needs and there are multiple talented players who could fit those needs. A team could go multiple ways when it is thier turn to pick. For instance, The Lions are gonna take; A QB,,, A Big Tackle,,, or Curry. When was the last time a the number one pick was so up in the air? This could turn out to be one of the strangest drafts in a long time. I also see many teams getting many productive players. Just gonna be crazy I guess.

PS, I almost chit my pants when I saw Terranimal. It has been a long time, glad to see the input.
ricky
QUOTE (Patty @ Apr 5 2009, 02:06 AM) *
I agree. This year you could see players ranked in rounds 3 or 4 going earlier and the opposite you could see some players ranked high "slipping" into rounds 3 or 4

This draft this year is really shaping up as a needs based draft more so than most drafts. GM's are going to keep things quite conservative and fall back to what they need either this year or next year. Oh sure they will chirp to the high heavens that they got the best player on the board but when you evaluate closely you will discover how closely that BPA fit a primary need,

As coined earlier BPA at the position of want.


Absolutely. The question is, if there is a (projected) stud DE and a stud OT and a stud OLB available- which one do you choose? Where is the greatest area of need on the Packers? That is where the GM and coach make their money- or lose their jobs.
stuffin
QUOTE (ricky @ Apr 5 2009, 10:48 AM) *
Absolutely. The question is, if there is a (projected) stud DE and a stud OT and a stud OLB available- which one do you choose? Where is the greatest area of need on the Packers? That is where the GM and coach make their money- or lose their jobs.


I just can't imagine TT not taking BPA in one the THE PACKER high need positions..

This year gives him the BPA cover if he needs to defend his choice vs need...
Terranimal
QUOTE (ricky @ Apr 4 2009, 10:48 PM) *
Absolutely. The question is, if there is a (projected) stud DE and a stud OT and a stud OLB available- which one do you choose? Where is the greatest area of need on the Packers? That is where the GM and coach make their money- or lose their jobs.


I'll take a stab at answering you.......

Under draft theories; The order goes like this:

1.) Franchise QB

2.) Shut Down DB (both of these are so rare to find)

3.) LT- for 2 reasons: 1,) Need to protect that big investment fronchise QB and 2.) LT (and RT) generally have a longer lifespan as a player in the NFL then say a RB, for example where the average span is 3.5 years; OTs average is around 10 years.

4.) Would be a true pass rusher....That used to be a DE; but now days could be a DT, OLB (since the Lawerance Taylor/Charles Haley days in the Elephant role) to what Javon Kearse types started..the hybrid OLB/DE role.

5.) Next would be that run stuffer; beit comming from a DT or a Monster MLBer.

6.) is that rare Go-To WR.. the clutch types that are so hard to find....the Rice's, Steerling Sharpe's, Irvin's, Harrison's ect......

One thing that has changed is the RB; as teams are moving to 2-3 RB roles. But ifa rare Franchise type RB; like Peterson, Sanders ect come along; one could make an arguement for one right after the LT in thie order. Hopefully this helps....

Hey Stuffin: good to see you too...but only here for another day or two; as I'm home visiting family. Hoping to be back before draft;but don't know....Trying to get the rest of my players and evals up; but like today was playing and watching my neice and nephews and boy they can wear one out; but it's a good thing.
ricky
QUOTE (Terranimal @ Apr 5 2009, 02:08 PM) *


OK- so you go for the stud OT? Your post was rambling. Please get to the point. Which position would you draft first with the BPA?
bogwon
QUOTE (ricky @ Apr 4 2009, 10:48 PM) *
Absolutely. The question is, if there is a (projected) stud DE and a stud OT and a stud OLB available- which one do you choose? Where is the greatest area of need on the Packers? That is where the GM and coach make their money- or lose their jobs.


In the case of a "projected" stud DE and a stud OT and a stud OLB all being available at the top of a draft I think you have to take the OT if it's a left OT. There are more failures with the top rated DE or top rated OLB in a draft than the top rated LOT in a draft. Plus a quality LOT will help ensure better production from the QB, RB and receiving corp.
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