Background:

My reasoning and change of view and focus this year is explained on the draft talk thread.......

So summing up all the things explained there, plus draft theories, reading a ton of draft guides @ Mocks; player evals, combine and individual workouts, crunching numbers and adding in my own evals on players I've watched and things I have learned from people like Patty (who helped me learn a lot years ago) and working back and forth with Rang years ago and ect.......This is what the results are

Also under the belief that this is the year we need to find difference makers, moreso then role players or players ready in a few years. Also avoiding character questionable and injury questionable players. We got bit on injury Q player in Harrel. Now RW would role the dice on character players but TT don't seem to do that. Also; like players with high motors and don't take plays off and players with mean streaks on the field. So using all the criteria here and from the draft talk thread; it eliminates a few players others are high on.

Players to take reguardless of need; however unless something bizar happenes; they are gone off the board:

1.) LT Jason Smith......2.) OLB Aaron Curry.....3.) OT Monroe- Now 2 things here: One is that he is most ready, but probally maxed out and two is durablity concerns. So he's not on my list. 4.) DE Orakpo- another player a lot of people like. However, doesn't always put out 100% and is known to take plays off. So another player not on my list. Worth noting that TT liked what he saw; but that could be aonother in a long line of smokescreens...ala RW.

Also, positions in order of importance (again from draft Theories) 1.) Franchise QB, 2.) Shut-Down DB 3.) LT, 4.) Pass-rusher and so on down the line. Now in recent years w/o true size, impact DE's; teams have placed a great importance on space-eaters/ pocket-collasping DT's to get pressure so smaller DE's can rushhte QB. And both TT and RW always said a team can never have enough DT's. Which is kind of ironic now as we traded Williams and this year let Cole go via FA.

Two players that could be there; but also just as easily be off the board. depends on whether there is a run on OBL/DE or OT's right away......

1.) DT Raji- Like him alot. Be perfect for the middle on DC"s 3-4 NT. (see Pittsburgh) Would be an improvement for the front 7. As no DB's can cover WR's forever (see last season) Pressure has to come from somewhere and also need to occupy space to stop the run.

2.) DB Jenkins: Done more thinking and re-eval on this player then anyone else in the draft. People are all over the place on this player. Is he a CB or is he a FS? Bottom line is he is the best in this weak draft for Secondary. Read everyone's evals out there and it's easy to get confused. One will say doesn't turn fast enough in the hips, then the next one says he is. Some say he's too slow and others say his speed is fine.

To me it boils down to this- He is a playmaker period. 4.5 40 is a bit bothersome. But Last year's Lee is a superfast DB and how many teams have 2 or 3 WR's running 4.3's or faster?

Then two other things I considered. A big question is; can a physical and aging (slowing down) Harris adapt from Bump coverage to zone?

Then i think about the DB's and FS's Pitt has had over the years in the 3-4 and it would seem he would be a fit at 3-4 ias a FS......

So it goes to figure that the top Gurus are all over the place on this player...most that are down on him is because of his 4.5 speed in the 40..... I think we could probally have a big thread on this player and in the end still all wouldn't be able to agree on him.....

Now if the Pack don't like Jenkins or don't see it as a need and the others are off the board; then I could see a trade down some spots. Not the year to trade out of rd 1 though. But from middle of rd1 thru 2/3 of rd 3 is the meat of the draft IMO. Also where we should see runs on positions of QB, DT, OLB/DE.

Depending on where we pick in rd1 after a trade down:

1.) LT Britton- Huge upside. A very intelligent player, unselfish as he's known to help other players, High charter, non-stop motor, and has room to add wieght to his frame w/o losing speed. Like him over Monroe as he hasn't peaked yet and over Andre Smith, Oher @ Loadholt Looks to have the intangibles. Know a lot have him in round 2; however his stock is on the rise and very well could be gone by pick 20 in rd 1.

2.) DT Ziggy Hood- Non-stop motor...gives his all on every play, plus has the measurables

3.)OLB/ DE Clay Mathews: really like this kid too. Just had a great pro-day. Not as experienced as his USC LBer counter-parts; but people are comming around to thiking he'll end up being the best of the 3. Of course has NFL bloodlines to the max. Has everything you want to see in a player; just a bit raw yet; but upside is huge. Could also make an argument for his teamate Cushing; as well.

These 3 players are all on the rise with a bullet up the boards. In fact; depending on runs; all 3 could be well off the board by pick 20 or at least by end of rd 1 early rd 2.....my bet is by middle rd 1......

FYI: Not on my need list, but worth saying.....ILB Laurinaitis.......He's a player....but here is the non-football info part: His Dad was 1/2 of the WWF's Road warriors of the late 80's/90's (Animal) Mom also was a wrokout and body building (credit NFL network)

Moving on:

4.) RB Knowshon Moreno- Another player like Jenkins where people are all over the place due to his 40 time. Forget it....people said Walter Payton was too small and too small. Jerry Rice was supposedly too slow comming out of college. The point is this kid can really bring it and play. Like him better then some of the RBs from lats year's draft that were in rd 1. Though not a need; might be hard to pass up if using BPA. Could go higher and should go higher then later rd 1. But again; a player no one agrees on......some have him falling and others have him rising. Could be a rd 1 steal and if we trade down; might be too good to pass up.

5.) DE Tyson Jackson.....nothing bad to say on him and like him. But to me is one of those safe picks As the theme of this draft seems to be going...another player that some have going high and others have going in lower rd 1.....some have him rising, some him standing pat and some have him falling. To me, would seem with Kampman and Jenkins and Q's at DT; DT would more of a priority.

6.) Though not a true need, TE Chase Coffman...Does the name sound familar? Yes; Paul's son and a pretty, darn good player too. A round 2 or later picvk by all acccounts

So this is my short list for rd1 thru early rd 2.

Just thought I would try to make things easier and hopefully Arrigo don't mind; but am adding players here he posted from his rumour post on the streets thread. Trying to do updates on one thread here.....

Lber Curry....

DT Raji

DE Everette Brown

OT Andre Smith

DE Larry English

OT William Beatty

OT Jamoh Meredith

TT was at the USC pro day. I don't think Mathews is going to be the pick, but if the Packers are not sold on some of the DEs to play OLB they might want to take a linebacker instead.

One player dominated at the Senior Bowl in Mobile and it wasn't Raji....it was Alex Mack. I know you don't pick guards or centers in the first round but the kid may be the best blocker in the group. His size is similar to Oher so if TT goes down the latter part of first round, see him as possible selection.

According to Longhorn DC Muschamp this is complete BS.

Of course Will Muschamp said that, he's going to say whatever he needs to say to get his guy drafted in the top 5 for recruiting.

There are 6 guys I guarantee won't be there at #9: Curry, Monroe, J. Smith, Stafford, Raji, and Crabtree. Thompson is going to pick the guy that has the highest value on his board. The question is, who is that guy? Just a gut feeling, but I think Thompson is targeting 2 guys at #9: Clay Matthews and Knowshon Moreno. Both guys are your typical Thompson picks. I know I've changed my thoughts many times this offseason, sometimes I was sure it would Malcolm Jenkins, sometimes I was sure it would be Tyson Jackson, etc. In another 2 weeks I may change it, but right now, Matthews and Moreno make the most sense. What you see is what you get with these guys, and that's something Thompson covets.

From what is being reported Matthews had the best day of the 3 USC LBers yesterday, but is he worthy of the 9th pick? I don't put a lot in the mocks and early draft-nik listings but I've not seen him listed higher than about 18 I think. The week leading up to the draft there are some lists that begin to have some validity, at least historically. Maybe he'll be higher when we get closer to the day.

I think Matthews will be a fine OLB...he's built for that position. He's big enough, he's fast enough, he's physical, he can rush the QB, he's surprisingly fluid when dropping into coverage, etc. I think when Thompson looks at his board when we're up, he's going to see Clay Matthews as the BPA.

Then again, Thompson may fool us all and take someone like Peria Jerry or Percy Harvin at #9. I'm not counting out that possibility either!

(using this post to reply to messages here)

100% agree that HC's and cordinators will say anything to promote their guy for the draft. If thier guy gets drafted high; that a feather in their cap for promoting and recruiting for their respective programs. That's part of what makes all of this so hard (forcasting). Teams go thru exstentive research....workouts, physche evals, interviews; not to mention every team has regional scouts that watch these players from their freshman year on and so forth. Still it's not an exact science and players will fail on the next level for whatecer reasons. With all the info sources there these days; hopefully that has improved some. Now I don't say things just to say them...(BS). And when I find things; always make sure it's from a reliable source(s) not just some rumour place. Now when there seems to be a big difference of opinion on a player; also relay that too....See Moreno and Jenkins above.

Okay, let's get to some updating: On the draft thread said how Pack might be shopping Kampman..(espn local radio...2 weeks back) On the Streets thread here..saw Arringo (sp?) had several rumours and if they happen would greatly affect the draft for us. The one of us trading Kampman and maybe a 3rd for Peppers and then trying to trade up in the draft to get Curry has me excited; like a school boy going out on his first date and having that be with the prettiest girl in school that normally wouldn't give you the time of day In other words; would love it; but odds might be against it. Also see his thread on rumours on players we might be looking to draft.

But what I am glad to see, whether that works out or not, is that at least TT is at least trying. Curry might end up being a possible. However, that would be a lot of cap tied up at LBer....Burnnett, Our top 5 pick Hawk. We do have a ton of cap room though. So adding Peppers and Curry is feasible. (side note: TT was an NFL Lber @ ST player)

Now the Cutler trade is going to affect this draft more then anything. With 8 to 10 teams in the running and Denver not liking to pick in the top 5 of the draft (if they traded w/Det.) would mean a trade down if Den got the top pick overall. We could drive ourselves nuts trying to figure out all the senerios on the Cutler deal and I for one; don't have the time to figure all of that out. What's worse is that the Cutler deal probally won't get done until right before the draft. Same thing if we could pull off the Peppers/Kampman trade.

On Mathews: His Pro day only solidified his stock status. He's a bit raw but has played at several positions....inside and out, pass-rusher DE, and ST's. My own gut feeling is that he'll end up being one of the top 2 LBers down the road from this draft; if not possibilly the best one down the road from this draft.

Bottom Line- Too many variables (trades and run on positions) to accurately figure out what our draft will be. But the possitives are TT is at least trying and at least this draft is exciting and not boring this year for us.....

Matthews tested positive for steroids at the combine. I wonder how that will affect his stock?

Sorry, thru all of my searching on the web and listening to nationwide sports radio; never heard that.....

Guessing here' but maybe depending on just what kind of roids? You know like a bunch of NFL guys tested for last year?

Anyways in all of the researching I've recently; I've only seen his stock rising and NOT dropping. So I don't know what inpact that'll have.

But more concerning at present is Raji's dirty test. As I've found out thru the NFL network; this isn't the first time; as he also tested possitive for pot in college too. But they did say that this info that was leaked is only rumour and they didn'y have it confimed 100% yet.....

I hadn't heard that either. Are you thinking of Cushing?

Well, I just read elsewhere this is true of Matthews too. I just don't understand how these players can be so dumb. You know you are going to get tested like you've never been tested in your life and you're smoking weed and doing 'roids' right before the combine??? Don't these guys wear helmets when they play? How many blows to the head would you have to take??? I just don't get it.

Yeah; I don't get it either on how dumb can one be; when they know they will be tested.

Tell you a story: Back in the early 90's, my ex's brother-in-law worked for the company that tested all the NFL players. He told me that the testing was a joke and that the players that got caught back were really dumb. Why? because they would a month's notice of when they would be tested; so they could test clean. This was back when players like LT were smocking crack, and players were on all kinds of different drugs.....Oh yeah they torable accepted levels too back then; which why he knew about players under the influences of different things. Of the testing is so much stricter now; then back then.

One more note on "roids" though- Now I've had to take them once in life for a medical reason; and I've had other friends that had to do the same for the same reason. But when the Dr's do that; it's usually not for any longer then 5-7 days. So I don't know if that is a possibilty with Matthews or not. Kind of hard for me to fathom that a kid; that will be 3rd generation NFL player; could possibilly be that dumb to risk so much; by screwing up and using "roids"

Wouldn't your ex's brother-in-law be you're brother??


Go Pack!!

Good One there....oops Actually, was in a hurry when posting and tried to make it simple and mis-posted..

It was really my ex's Cousin's husband.....(hope I wrote that correct this time )

Like I posted in the Raji thread, apparently Matthews agent is vehemently denying that Clay tested positive. Apparently that website jumped the gun with information from their "inside sources".

These 'sources' can ruin a kid's reputation and cost him millions. They should be held accountable. The player should be able to go after them legally, imo. There are some people now that will forever believe Matthews was abusing no matter what facts are discovered. Irresponsible reporting and kids like Clay have to pay the price. VERY unfair to him.

Yes; they did and on top of that; it was false info. I just posted a big post on all of that on the draft thread.

Note: For anyone who reads this thread- Gonna try to finish up more player evals and hopefully get players thru 6 rounds (time permitting) Before I head back home to the "grind" monday. Will try to get back here before the draft and during the draft if I get away back up here. Been a nice week off and being back home by family. I can go wireless and add Direct TV there; but I'm looking to move in the next 3 months; so I'm gonna wait to go those routes.

Also; if anyone wishes to contact me; I have a new e-mail addy...Terranimal_1@live.com (bare in mind; after this weekend it will be hard for me to reply; as my work hours make it hard to get to the library and they limit your time to only an hour there)

Terranimal

Thanks for the great post and good read! Very good analysis. The players that intrigue me most in the 1st round are Matthews and Moreno. I just love their potential. I don't see Moreno being plucked @9; but if we trade down deep enough into 1 to where we can pick up another 2; I see Moreno a strong possibility.

If Raji is on the board; I think we take him (though I don't agree he's worth it that high in a 3-4... personnally think Brace will be a better NT and Raji will/would be a STUD as a 4-3 DT).

As for Matthews; I don't think we would be able to trade down much to get him. I think he's now a sure-fire Top 15 pick, and a "safer" pick than Maybin IMO.

Brown is still a strong possiblity. I really like the fact he already graduated as a Jr. (shows he's got something between the ears). TT likes intelligent players; not thugs.

My THUG list to stay away from:
Raji (just a GUT feeling. The 2 drug failures won't help his habit when he's got more $$ and free time)
V. Davis (a thug that just doesn't realize the potential he has...cross between Pacman and Deangelo Hall)
L. McCoy (very arrogant...me first)


My TEAM FIRST list who you can't go wrong picking:
Oher (just a great all-around guy and will not let you down, Lenny of Mice & Men)
Jenkins (competitor who has great FB intelligence and will be on the field whether at CB or S)
Moreno (competitor who will not disappoint you in drafting him)
Mack (I think will be the best C to come out in 5 years. Interior Versitility and plays with a fire in his belly)
Rashad Johnson (Walk-on who knows FB and the potential to be a really good S because of his smarts)