This is an article that Football Outsiders does every year. Last year was my first time reading it and I got this juicy tidbit from them:
QUOTE
Last year, speed score pegged Chris Johnson (121.9) as the best back in the class, with Darren McFadden (120.0) and Jonathan Stewart (116.7) shortly behind. It predicted Matt Forte' (109.7) to be a sleeper, while believing that Ray Rice (99.8), Kevin Smith (98.6) and Steve Slaton (96.9) would struggle. Speed score is certainly not a foolproof indicator, but as you can see from that level of performance, it can be a useful one.
As you can see it is not a perfect tool, but it is, as they say, useful. I coupled this knowledge with the fact that rookie running backs have a tendency to take larger roles in the offenses that draft them. From the above list the best candidates for those larger roles were Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte', and Kevin Smith. They were all put on teams that had a very muddled picture at running back.
I had two fantasy teams last year. During both drafts McFadden went high. Again, as the title suggests, I was only going to look at rookie running backs in the later rounds. That's when you can get the most bang for your buck. I ended up drafting Chris Johnson, Matt Forte', and Kevin Smith on at least one of my teams (I had Johnson on both). The season went on and the rest is history. Thanks to Forte' and Johnson I ended up in league championship games on both of my teams, winning one of them.
Now what does this article tell us this year? That Beenie Wells will be the best bet for high rookie running back production. Other than him, though, there isn't any clear cut guy to pin your hat on here in March. We'll have to see where everyone ends up to accurately make predictions.
But this was a useful tool for me last year and I thought I'd share it.
QUOTE
Speed Score For 2009 Running Backs
Player School 40 Time Weight Speed Score
Andre Brown North Carolina State 4.49 224 110.2
Cedric Peerman Virginia 4.45 216 110.2
Ian Johnson Boise State 4.46 212 107.2
Javarris Williams Tennessee State 4.52 223 106.9
Beanie Wells Ohio State 4.59 235 105.9
Kory Sheets Purdue 4.47 208 104.2
Donald Brown Connecticut 4.51 210 101.5
Rashad Jennings Liberty 4.64 231 99.7
Shonn Greene Iowa 4.63 227 98.8
Mike Goodson Texas A&M 4.54 208 97.9
Chris Ogbonnaya Texas 4.61 220 97.4
Marlon Lucky Nebraska 4.59 216 97.3
Knowshon Moreno Georgia 4.60 217 96.9
James Davis Clemson 4.61 218 96.5
Glen Coffee Alabama 4.58 209 95.0
Jeremiah Johnson Oregon 4.61 209 92.5
Bernard Scott Abilene Christian 4.56 200 92.5
Anthony Kimble Stanford 4.66 216 91.6
Javon Ringer Michigan State 4.60 205 91.6
Branden Ore West Liberty State 4.67 214 90.0
Tyrell Sutton Northwestern 4.66 211 89.5
Gartrell Johnson Colorado State 4.71 219 89.0
Kahlil Bell UCLA 4.68 212 88.4
Note: Some times are unofficial
Player School 40 Time Weight Speed Score
Andre Brown North Carolina State 4.49 224 110.2
Cedric Peerman Virginia 4.45 216 110.2
Ian Johnson Boise State 4.46 212 107.2
Javarris Williams Tennessee State 4.52 223 106.9
Beanie Wells Ohio State 4.59 235 105.9
Kory Sheets Purdue 4.47 208 104.2
Donald Brown Connecticut 4.51 210 101.5
Rashad Jennings Liberty 4.64 231 99.7
Shonn Greene Iowa 4.63 227 98.8
Mike Goodson Texas A&M 4.54 208 97.9
Chris Ogbonnaya Texas 4.61 220 97.4
Marlon Lucky Nebraska 4.59 216 97.3
Knowshon Moreno Georgia 4.60 217 96.9
James Davis Clemson 4.61 218 96.5
Glen Coffee Alabama 4.58 209 95.0
Jeremiah Johnson Oregon 4.61 209 92.5
Bernard Scott Abilene Christian 4.56 200 92.5
Anthony Kimble Stanford 4.66 216 91.6
Javon Ringer Michigan State 4.60 205 91.6
Branden Ore West Liberty State 4.67 214 90.0
Tyrell Sutton Northwestern 4.66 211 89.5
Gartrell Johnson Colorado State 4.71 219 89.0
Kahlil Bell UCLA 4.68 212 88.4
Note: Some times are unofficial