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The Great Favre Fallacy... ...he was intercepted way more than the rest of the greats

#1 User is offline   Astonishment Icon

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Posted 05 March 2008 - 01:35 PM

With all the Favre coverage lately, there seems to be a trend (although not a new trend) that appears everytime the "experts" try to determine his place in history. This trend it one of largest Farve misconceptions.

Here is that great Favre fallacy:
Brett Favre threw way more interceptions than the rest of the all time great QB’s. This is not to say Brett did not throw picks, but not to the extreeme amount the pundits allude to.

When comparing Favre's interceptions to the rest of the all-time greats I am using two ratios (not because they are slanted toward Favre, but because they put them into the best perspective possible).

First here are Favre's stats:
(Player - Interceptions/Games Started, Touchdowns/Intercepions)
Favre - 1.14, 1.54

Now the Players who Favre threw way more picks than, and is compared to (in alphabetical order):
(Player - Int/GS, TD/Int)
Troy Aikman - 0.86, 1.17
Terry Bradshaw - 1.33, 1.01
Tom Brady - 0.78, 2.29
John Elway - 0.98, 1.33
Dan Fouts - 1.42, 1.05
Otto Grahm - 1.18, 1.29
Jim Kelly - 1.09, 1.35
Peyton Manning - 0.96, 2.00
Dan Marino - 1.05, 1.67
Joe Montana - 0.83, 1.96
Warren Moon - 1.15, 1.25
Bart Starr - 0.87, 1.10
Roger Staubach - 0.96, 1.40
Fran Tarkenton - 1.11, 1.29
Steve Young - 0.75, 2.17

The reason I chose those stats where in the case of Int/GS to show the players to turn the ball over (via int's) in a game, and in the case of TD/Int to show the cost befit of their style of play. I realize that the QB may have thrown a pick in a game that he did not start (see Favre in Atl), but I did not feel it was fair to use their overall games as a few of these QB's did not start right away in their career so their stats would be skewed by sitting on the bench. Also I realize that different eras are impossible to compare, but since they are being compared in the press I feel it is only fair to include everyone I have heard is better than Favre.

In the end Brett is better than Fouts, Bradshaw, Grahm, and Moon; he is also relatively close to Tarkenton, Kelly, and Marino in the Int/GS category. Elway, Staubach, Starr, and Aikman are a step better. The top of this group are Montana, Brady, and Young (who all have video game type ratios).

Brett is better than Bradshaw, Fouts, Starr, Aikman, Moon, Grahm, Tarkenton, Elway, Kelly, and Staubach in the TD/Int ratio. He is behind Marino, Montana, Manning, Young, and Brady.


Now remember this is supposed to be Favre's BIGGEST failure. However, he is right in the middle of all of these all-time greats in something he supposedly falls greatly behind in. The media love Favre, but that love has led to greater attention and greater criticism. On the negative side, Brett has thrown some picks in some crucial times recently and that cannot be overlooked.

One final piece that must be factored in is that Favre has been surrounded by arguably the worst cast of playmakers of any QB in that group. In the end I believe history will look back at Favre's career, and judge it as a whole and not skew it based on the recent failures. Favre is much better than some of the media are giving him credit for - to often you don't know what you had until it is gone, hopefully the New York/Boston driven media will recognize Favre's Interception myth before his final status is cemented in Canton.
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#2 User is offline   strat1080 Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 09:10 AM

The most accurate and objective way to measure INTs is to look at INT/ATT. Really what Favre was criticized more than anything for is his tendency to throw interceptions in the playoffs, which is statistically true. His INT/ATT ratio skyrockets in the playoffs compared to many other great QBs. His playoff INT/ATT ratio is 3.9%, which is .7% higher than his regular season stats. Favre wasn't really that interception prone in the regular season but definitely was in the playoffs. So I agree that Favre overall wasn't interception prone when compared objectively but do disregard his playoff performance isn't logically accurate.

QUOTE (Astonishment @ Mar 5 2008, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
With all the Favre coverage lately, there seems to be a trend (although not a new trend) that appears everytime the "experts" try to determine his place in history. This trend it one of largest Farve misconceptions.

Here is that great Favre fallacy:
Brett Favre threw way more interceptions than the rest of the all time great QB’s. This is not to say Brett did not throw picks, but not to the extreeme amount the pundits allude to.

When comparing Favre's interceptions to the rest of the all-time greats I am using two ratios (not because they are slanted toward Favre, but because they put them into the best perspective possible).

First here are Favre's stats:
(Player - Interceptions/Games Started, Touchdowns/Intercepions)
Favre - 1.14, 1.54

Now the Players who Favre threw way more picks than, and is compared to (in alphabetical order):
(Player - Int/GS, TD/Int)
Troy Aikman - 0.86, 1.17
Terry Bradshaw - 1.33, 1.01
Tom Brady - 0.78, 2.29
John Elway - 0.98, 1.33
Dan Fouts - 1.42, 1.05
Otto Grahm - 1.18, 1.29
Jim Kelly - 1.09, 1.35
Peyton Manning - 0.96, 2.00
Dan Marino - 1.05, 1.67
Joe Montana - 0.83, 1.96
Warren Moon - 1.15, 1.25
Bart Starr - 0.87, 1.10
Roger Staubach - 0.96, 1.40
Fran Tarkenton - 1.11, 1.29
Steve Young - 0.75, 2.17

The reason I chose those stats where in the case of Int/GS to show the players to turn the ball over (via int's) in a game, and in the case of TD/Int to show the cost befit of their style of play. I realize that the QB may have thrown a pick in a game that he did not start (see Favre in Atl), but I did not feel it was fair to use their overall games as a few of these QB's did not start right away in their career so their stats would be skewed by sitting on the bench. Also I realize that different eras are impossible to compare, but since they are being compared in the press I feel it is only fair to include everyone I have heard is better than Favre.

In the end Brett is better than Fouts, Bradshaw, Grahm, and Moon; he is also relatively close to Tarkenton, Kelly, and Marino in the Int/GS category. Elway, Staubach, Starr, and Aikman are a step better. The top of this group are Montana, Brady, and Young (who all have video game type ratios).

Brett is better than Bradshaw, Fouts, Starr, Aikman, Moon, Grahm, Tarkenton, Elway, Kelly, and Staubach in the TD/Int ratio. He is behind Marino, Montana, Manning, Young, and Brady.
Now remember this is supposed to be Favre's BIGGEST failure. However, he is right in the middle of all of these all-time greats in something he supposedly falls greatly behind in. The media love Favre, but that love has led to greater attention and greater criticism. On the negative side, Brett has thrown some picks in some crucial times recently and that cannot be overlooked.

One final piece that must be factored in is that Favre has been surrounded by arguably the worst cast of playmakers of any QB in that group. In the end I believe history will look back at Favre's career, and judge it as a whole and not skew it based on the recent failures. Favre is much better than some of the media are giving him credit for - to often you don't know what you had until it is gone, hopefully the New York/Boston driven media will recognize Favre's Interception myth before his final status is cemented in Canton.

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#3 Guest_kevinwayne20_*

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 10:25 AM

QUOTE (strat1080 @ Mar 6 2008, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The most accurate and objective way to measure INTs is to look at INT/ATT. Really what Favre was criticized more than anything for is his tendency to throw interceptions in the playoffs, which is statistically true. His INT/ATT ratio skyrockets in the playoffs compared to many other great QBs. His playoff INT/ATT ratio is 3.9%, which is .7% higher than his regular season stats. Favre wasn't really that interception prone in the regular season but definitely was in the playoffs. So I agree that Favre overall wasn't interception prone when compared objectively but do disregard his playoff performance isn't logically accurate.


I agree about the INT/ ATT ratio. That is the best way too look at it objectively. of course Favre is going to have a lot of INTs. The guy has attempted and completed more passes than any QB in NFL history.
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#4 User is offline   TommMixx Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 11:40 AM

QUOTE (strat1080 @ Mar 6 2008, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The most accurate and objective way to measure INTs is to look at INT/ATT. Really what Favre was criticized more than anything for is his tendency to throw interceptions in the playoffs, which is statistically true. His INT/ATT ratio skyrockets in the playoffs compared to many other great QBs. His playoff INT/ATT ratio is 3.9%, which is .7% higher than his regular season stats. Favre wasn't really that interception prone in the regular season but definitely was in the playoffs. So I agree that Favre overall wasn't interception prone when compared objectively but do disregard his playoff performance isn't logically accurate.

Just to make a comparison with another great Packer QB, Bart Starr attempted 213 passes and threw 3 interceptions in the 10 playoff games he started.
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#5 User is offline   Astonishment Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 11:51 AM

QUOTE (kevinwayne20 @ Mar 6 2008, 12:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I agree about the INT/ ATT ratio. That is the best way too look at it objectively. of course Favre is going to have a lot of INTs. The guy has attempted and completed more passes than any QB in NFL history.

I had avoided that ratio because I feel that the System affected it more than the other statistics. In addition, I agree with the comment about Favre in the Playoffs (at least in the last hlaf of his career), and I did mention that in the first post. For the sake of fair disclosure, here are the Int/PA percentages:

Favre - 3.29%

Troy Aikman - 2.99%
Terry Bradshaw - 5.38%
Tom Brady - 2.36%
John Elway - 3.12%
Dan Fouts - 4.32%
Otto Grahm - 9.22%
Jim Kelly - 3.66%
Peyton Manning - 2.83%
Dan Marino - 3.02%
Joe Montana - 2.58%
Warren Moon - 3.42%
Bart Starr - 4.38%
Roger Staubach - 3.69%
Fran Tarkenton - 4.11%
Steve Young - 2.58%

So, this statistic falls in about the same situation as the rest, where Favre is in the middle. He was better than Bradshaw, Fouts, Grahm, Kelly, Moon, Starr, Staubach, and Tarkenton; behind Aikman, Brady, Elway, Manning, Marino, Montana, and Young. Only Brady, Manning, Montana, and Young were significantly better. It should also be mentioned that both Manning and Brady's stats are inflated because they are currently in their primes. Their number will change as they advance in their careers (one way or another), where the rest of the players all had their declining portion of their career included in the numbers.

In the end, Brett's interceptions are still greatly exaggerated, but he did have the tendency (especially late in his career) to try and "make" thing happen in the big games. That led to a few to many bad moments.
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#6 User is offline   Astonishment Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 12:12 PM

Also, here are Favre’s numbers at Brady’s (8 years), and Manning’s (10 years) point in their careers:

Brady’s point in Favre’s career:
Int/GS, TD/Int, Int/Att
1.06 (-.08), 1.81 (+.27), 3.14% (-.15%)

Manning’s point in Favre’s career:
1.10 (-.04), 1.62 (+.08), 3.18% (-.11%)
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#7 User is offline   pakrules Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 04:17 PM

QUOTE (Astonishment @ Mar 7 2008, 01:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Also, here are Favre’s numbers at Brady’s (8 years), and Manning’s (10 years) point in their careers:

Brady’s point in Favre’s career:
Int/GS, TD/Int, Int/Att
1.06 (-.08), 1.81 (+.27), 3.14% (-.15%)

Manning’s point in Favre’s career:
1.10 (-.04), 1.62 (+.08), 3.18% (-.11%)



And he made more plays on his own, with lots less talent around him than the other greats. Thanks for posting Cowpuke, viqueen or whatever team you root for.
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#8 User is offline   MSG Icon

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Posted 06 March 2008 - 05:53 PM

QUOTE (pakrules @ Mar 6 2008, 06:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
And he made more plays on his own, with lots less talent around him than the other greats. Thanks for posting Cowpuke, viqueen or whatever team you root for.

Obviously, you didn't take the time to read this poster's initial post. The initial post states that he feels Favre's interceptions are being used unfairly by the media as a negative, he also made the same statement as you about the talent Favre played with. If you had taken the time to read that, you would have not made such a foolish response.
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#9 User is offline   ilpackerbacker Icon

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 06:16 AM

the great debate

did favre tend to choke in big games? did he lose his composure?

or did more talented teams take the packer team away and force favre to try and beat them?

is carrying a team in the regular season harder than in the playoffs? what GB WR stepped up and made sensational catches like the weak NYG WRs did?


the question will be clearer in a year wont' it?
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#10 User is offline   LuvdaPack36 Icon

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 06:21 AM

QUOTE (ilpackerbacker @ Mar 7 2008, 07:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
the great debate

did favre tend to choke in big games? did he lose his composure?

or did more talented teams take the packer team away and force favre to try and beat them?

is carrying a team in the regular season harder than in the playoffs? what GB WR stepped up and made sensational catches like the weak NYG WRs did?
the question will be clearer in a year wont' it?




Driver had a nice catch...

But I dont think this thread is about Favre choking.

The point of this thread is to prove that Favre's INT ratio is lower or right in line with some of the best ever so when the media and or fans start to bash him about it they really have not done their homework.
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