[Tyler Durden]

There's good discussion of how the comp picks work out over at KFFL (look at 2007: http://www.kffl.com/...d.php?p=3400211 )

Looking at what the Packers may expect in 2008

Lost:
RB Ahman Green: 4 yr./23 M (ave = 5.75/yr)
TE David Martin: 3 yr./3.57 M (ave=1.25/yr)

They signed:

CB Frank Walker: 1 yr./1.2 M

(Note DT Allen signed with CIN but didn't stick to the opening day roster so doesn't count)

Essentially, Martin and Walker cancel each other out, leaving Ahman Green as who the comp pick will be based on. My research has shown that the pick is most heavily weighted toward annual salary, with secondary impacts of playing time and accolades playing a much smaller part. Looking at the other UFAs who were signed by other teams, Green ranks 10th in terms of total salary, but is lumped pretty tight with the 9th and 8th (which go up to $6 M per year). Then, looking at how comps have worked out in the past (a total of 32 are awarded at the end of rounds, generally weighted to the 7th round, but in 2006, the third round had 4 picks, the 4th round had 6 picks, 5 in the 5th, 4 in the 6th and 13 in the 7th). If I had to guess right now, I'd say there's an outside chance they are awarded a 4th rounder, a much better chance the Packers are awarded a 5th round pick from Green's absence, and if things get hosed up, a 6th round pick would be the worst case IMO.

If I had to lay money, I'd guess Green would be worth a 5th round Compensatory Pick. The real expert at KFFL (AdamJT13) will have his analysis for the 2008 comp picks done the end of Feb, about a month before the comp picks are awarded.

[pless55]

I guess with a fifth round pick I would pick Kellen Davis tight end from Michigan State. Big and still has alot of upside. I think he would be a steal that late in the draft.

[TommMixx]

There's good discussion of how the comp picks work out over at KFFL (look at 2007: http://www.kffl.com/...d.php?p=3400211 )

Looking at what the Packers may expect in 2008

Lost:
RB Ahman Green: 4 yr./23 M (ave = 5.75/yr)
TE David Martin: 3 yr./3.57 M (ave=1.25/yr)

They signed:

CB Frank Walker: 1 yr./1.2 M

(Note DT Allen signed with CIN but didn't stick to the opening day roster so doesn't count)

Essentially, Martin and Walker cancel each other out, leaving Ahman Green as who the comp pick will be based on. My research has shown that the pick is most heavily weighted toward annual salary, with secondary impacts of playing time and accolades playing a much smaller part. Looking at the other UFAs who were signed by other teams, Green ranks 10th in terms of total salary, but is lumped pretty tight with the 9th and 8th (which go up to $6 M per year). Then, looking at how comps have worked out in the past (a total of 32 are awarded at the end of rounds, generally weighted to the 7th round, but in 2006, the third round had 4 picks, the 4th round had 6 picks, 5 in the 5th, 4 in the 6th and 13 in the 7th). If I had to guess right now, I'd say there's an outside chance they are awarded a 4th rounder, a much better chance the Packers are awarded a 5th round pick from Green's absence, and if things get hosed up, a 6th round pick would be the worst case IMO.

If I had to lay money, I'd guess Green would be worth a 5th round Compensatory Pick. The real expert at KFFL (AdamJT13) will have his analysis for the 2008 comp picks done the end of Feb, about a month before the comp picks are awarded.

My analysis also indicated the Packers would receive a 5th round comp. pick for Green. I believe a 4th round pick is very unlikely, but a 6th is possible.

[mitchconnor]

I'll admit to not knowing diddly-squat about the super-secret compensatory formula. But based on what similar players have netted in the past, a 5th always seemed about right to me for Green.